5-5-15: Small “c” Conservatives Exposed

Posted on May 17, 2015 by susanonthesoapbox

On May 5, 2015, NDP leader Rachel Notley brought the Progressive Conservative dynasty to its knees.

Many Albertans, including Ms Soapbox, are over the moon. Others who voted for one of the two conservative parties are wandering around like Li’l Abner’s Joe Btfsplk.

The small “c” conservative brain trust, with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, is busy providing insight into why the fall of the PC party was inevitable and how conservatives can rise from the ashes stronger than ever.

Let’s see what three leading small “c” conservatives have to say.

The perfect storm theory

Former Wildrose leader Danielle Smith is popping up in the media with the alarming regularity of a whack-a-mole.

Danielle Smith with an important message for conservatives

She blames Ralph Klein. He failed to come up with a “go-forward” plan after he’d balanced the budget. Instead he and his successors turned Alberta into a “workers’ paradise” by siphoning money from the savings trust fund and increasing debt instead of fixing the problem by cutting public services.

Note: Smith makes the same mistake the PCs made—she confuses the PC party with the PC government; they’re not one and the same…or at least they shouldn’t be.

Smith says the Wildrose was poised to set things right when Jim Prentice rode into town and kiboshed their chance to form government. She doesn’t say why, apparently this was self-evident.   

Smith says she joined Prentice’s government because she recognized the danger of vote splitting but acknowledges the floor crossing was a failure—it occurred at the wrong time and in the wrong way.

Then Prentice made things worse by delivering a budget that infuriated progressives and conservatives alike.

All the while Alberta had been tilting further and further to the left (witness the election of two young progressive mayors in Calgary and Edmonton).

This created the perfect storm allowing Rachel Notley’s NDP to galvanize progressive voters and put paid to the PC party once and for all.

The oil oligarch theory

Barry Cooper, a member of the group of conservative political scientists known as the Calgary School, agrees with Smith that Ralph Klein put the PC party on the path to annihilation, but he doesn’t identify pandering to the progressives as the root of the problem.

Barry Cooper with an important message for oligarchs

Instead he focuses on the PC party’s mutation into a vehicle for self-promotion. He says the party’s wheels were greased by “oilpatch oligarchs” who think politics is subordinate to economics and business.

It would appear that the PC party agreed with the oligarchs’ view because it allowed the oligarchs to manipulate the party into unseating two premiers (Ed Stelmach and Alison Redford) and recruiting a third (Jim Prentice).

Cooper says the oligarchs were so busy moving the pieces around the chess board that they failed to notice the “stench coming from the…PC machine” and missed the opportunity to protect their interests by switching their allegiance to the Wildrose.

You got that, right? Cooper is not explaining why the PC party fell. He’s teaching an object lesson to the oligarchs: Ignore putrefying political parties at your peril. Switch from a dying conservative party to its successor and you will continue to control the levers of power.

Moving forward

Smith’s solution to the demise of the PC party is not surprising given her belief that vote splitting pounded the last nail in its coffin. She says the PCs and the Wildrose must unite and reinvent themselves to become more relevant to a new generation of voters.

A few words from Alberta’s most famous libertarian on what a reunited, reinvented conservative party would look like would have been helpful, but Smith failed to elaborate.

Preston Manning, the father of the Reform Party which evolved into the Canadian Alliance which spawned Stephen Harper (for which I will never forgive him) says the election of the NDP is a blessing in disguise.

Preston Manning with an important message for business

The destruction of the PC party will result in a rout of the “PC administration” who drifted away from conservative fiscal principles and “creative” conservative social and environmental values.

Manning says the conservative movement should rebuild from the bottom up, recommitting itself to conservative values, developing platforms that reflect those values and applying them to the issues of the day…or sink into irrelevance.

In the meantime, Manning frets that the NDP will make a hash of the economy unless…wait for it…the private sector comes to the government’s rescue. Manning says the energy sector is hurting and will not be able to provide much assistance, however he urges other economic players to “raise their game”. He wants agriculture, forestry, and the service and knowledge sectors to step in and do lord knows what while we wait for the energy sector to recover.

The logical extension of Manning’s proposal is the elimination of government all together.

The real significance of 5-5-15

5-5-15 marks the day that Albertans told the conservatives that the government belongs to the people, not corporations.

On Oct 19, 2015 Canadians will have an opportunity to tell Stephen Harper the same thing.

5-5-15 was a beautiful day in Alberta.

10-19-15 could be outstanding!

Posted in Politics and Government | Tagged , , , , , , , | 23 Comments

Everything will be A-OK

Posted on May 10, 2015 by susanonthesoapbox

“Well, I think we made a little history tonight!”— Rachel Notley’s victory speech  

Indeed we did! The 99% were jubilant. The 1% hit the panic button. And those who deflected political fearmongering with a healthy dose of hope and optimism found themselves facing a more insidious attack—fearmongering dressed up in a three-piece suit and renamed “economic risk and uncertainty”.

Here’s what fearmongering 1.0 and 2.0 look like.

Fearmongering 1.0

In the last week of the provincial election the Orange Wave became a tsunami. Corporate Alberta went into overdrive, flocking to the media to warn Albertans that the economy would be destroyed and their lives ruined if they failed to think straight and give Team Prentice another chance.

Editorial after editorial said the government needs to run the province like a business and Jim Prentice, an ex-banker, was perfectly suited to be the government’s CEO.

Mr Prentice quits politics

As we all know, it didn’t turn out that way.

Albertans rejected Corporate Alberta’s effort to colour the democratic process as an exercise in corporate succession planning. Instead they elected Ms Notley who promised to represent all Albertans, not just those in the corporate sector.

Team Prentice was reduced to 10 seats. Mr Prentice won his seat but abandoned his constituents before all the votes were counted (not very CEO-like behavior by anyone’s estimation).

We rested for a nanosecond; then the media (Corporate Alberta’s BFF) rushed in to finish the job. God only knows what they thought they were doing, the election was over.

Fearmongering 2.0

The media breathlessly reported that Albertans had made a terrible mistake.

The proof was right before our eyes. Canadian energy stocks plummeted overnight in response to the “economic risk and uncertainty” resulting from Albertans’ foolhardy decision to replace the business-friendly PC regime with an untested “left-leaning” NDP government that promised a royalty review, no further support for the Keystone XL and Northern Gateway pipelines and a two-point increase in corporate taxes.

Industry lobbyists demanded that Ms Notley clarify her intentions immediately.

She did. She told them everything would be A-OK.

Before someone circulates a petition recalling the entire NDP government, let’s look behind the curtain.

Plummeting energy stocks

Business columnists highlighted a 6% to 8% drop in share price at MEG Energy, Trilogy and Cenovus, but they failed to mention that Suncor, Husky and Imperial dropped less than half that amount (about 3%) and that all energy stocks were up by the close of business Friday due to higher crude prices and “a more positive sentiment for things oil-related these days.”

Fortunately, many energy companies filed their Q1 earning reports that same week, giving Albertans an opportunity to discover what energy sector CEOs really thought about the impact of an NDP government on their company’s business.

Of the 15 companies covered by the Daily Oil Bulletin, nine made no mention of the impact of the new NDP government.

Of the companies that mentioned the regime change, Crescent Point said the new NDP government wasn’t an issue because only 2% to 4% of its revenue was subject to Alberta royalties. Vermilion said it wouldn’t “pre-judge” the new government, preferring to wait until the NDP released its policies.

Ms Notley is A-OK

CNRL and Enbridge (the proponent of the Northern Gateway pipeline which would no longer be propped up by the Alberta government) said the change in government had created uncertainty but they were heartened by Ms Notley’s comment that the NDP would be a good partner for the industry.

Seven Gen embraced the change saying that while the PC government had been very good to the company, change creates new opportunities that they were eager to explore.

Husky said it operates in many jurisdictions with many regulators in Canada, the US and Asia and it enjoyed a good working relationship with the NDP governments in BC, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. As far as Husky was concerned it was “business as usual”.

Keep calm and carry on

The mainstream media moderated its tone. Perhaps they’ve gotten over the shock of discovering that Corporate Alberta no longer runs the government. Or maybe they’ve come to grips with the fact that they have absolutely no influence over Albertans whatsoever.

In any event, even the right-leaning CanWest Foundation warned the energy industry not to rush to judgment, suggesting “the faster the energy sector moves from fear and resentment to constructive engagement, the better off Alberta will be”.

Thank you Ms Notley

In her victory speech Ms Notley said “Whether you are a business leader, a union leader, a municipal leader, someone who leads in civil society, or just a plain Albertan – the Legislature belongs to you; the government belongs to you, and you will be treated with respect.”

I am thankful that Ms Notley gave Albertans a chance “to make a little history”.

I can’t wait to make a little bit more!

Posted in Politics and Government | Tagged , , , , | 38 Comments

Fearmongering or Hopemongering? It’s Your Call Alberta

Posted on May 3, 2015 by susanonthesoapbox

“I think it has deteriorated into groundless name-calling, and it’s certainly not the strategy that I would take.”—Rachel Notley reflecting on comments made by Jim Prentice and Brian Jean

To hear Jim Prentice and Brian Jean tell it, Rachel Notley’s plan to create a royalty commission and increase corporate taxes to 12% is an anti-free market experiment that will plunge Alberta into economic armageddon.

Once everyone stops hyperventilating we’ll take stock…

…okay, ready?

Impact (or lack thereof) on Big Oil

On the last day of the spring legislative session, Rachel Notley tabled Bill 209 which would create a resource owners’ rights commission. The commission would include industry representatives, experts in energy economics and sustainable development, aboriginals and industry employees.

Ms Notley “hopemongering”

It would make recommendations on royalty structure, value-added processing of natural resources and proposals for long term sustainability. And most importantly, it is transparent. The commission is required to make regular reports and consult with Albertans on the management of their natural resources.

Ms Notley assured Albertans that there would be no royalty changes in a low price environment.

Nevertheless Mr Prentice and Mr Jean are running around with their hair on fire and one industry executive, Cenovus CEO Brian Ferguson, fretted that anything that makes Alberta uncompetitive will cause capital, investment and jobs to flow to other jurisdictions.

Ms Notley was puzzled. “I don’t know how talking…with Albertans, in an independent, transparent accountable forum about a resource that belongs to Albertans is going to kill the industry.”

Is Big Oil really rattled?

The best way to find out whether Ms Notley overlooked a looming threat to Big Oil is to check out what Big Oil is saying about the royalty review and tax hike to its own analysts and investors.

Securities laws require Big Oil to file its first quarter earnings results in mid to late April. These results must include a discussion about the risks Big Oil has identified in the foreseeable future.

Guess what.

Not one energy company, not even Cenovus, updated its boilerplate risk language to address this so-called threat to their bottom line.

Mr Brian Jean “mulling” boilerplate?

A quick look at the boilerplate, which covers every risk known to man including changes to royalty regimes, tax laws, computer hackers, terrorist attacks and alien invasions (sorry, as a corporate securities lawyer I always wanted to slip in the “alien” bit just to see if anyone actually reads boilerplate) reveals that no one other than Mr Prentice and Mr Jean is fussed about Ms Notley’s suggestion that Albertans deserve the right to control their natural resources and corporations can pay a little more in corporate taxes.

Why me?

Recently five Edmonton businessmen called a press conference urging Albertans to “think straight”. Apparently anyone who wants to vote NDP has lost his mind.

They’re particularly concerned about the NDP’s plan to raise corporate taxes to 12%. One businessman, John Cameron (Keller Construction), said he couldn’t afford to pay two more percentage points in taxes or a minimum wage which will increase over time to $15.

He lamented: “Why is it always the corporations? “Why? Why is it me?”

Ashif Mawji (NPO Zero) said an increase in corporate taxes could result in reduced corporate contributions to charities like the Stollery Children’s Hospital.

Anybody got a hanky?

Right, let’s start at the top.

  • The NDP plan will not destroy the Alberta Advantage. The all-in tax burden on individuals and corporations will remain the lowest in Canada because Alberta does not have a sales tax. The sales tax in other provinces ranges from a low of 5% to a high of 10%. I know it’s hard but do the math.
  • The Stollery Children’s Hospital is not a charity, it’s a public service provided to sick children. Veiled (well, not so veiled) threats to stop charitable contributions is the last refuge of an illogical mind.
  • Why not you? Just because the PC government showered corporations with tax breaks and short-changed public services in the process doesn’t make it right.

Bottom line: if Alberta’s businesses are so fragile that they can’t survive a slight increase in corporate taxes and the obligation to pay a minimum wage that it still less than a living wage, it’s time these businessmen took another look at their business models.  Albertans can’t afford to carry them any longer.  

Mr Prentice “stabilizing” government?

Amateurs

The most bizarre argument against voting NDP is that they’ve never been in government and the newbies will create instability at a time when one false step will result in…well, something horrible.

This is rich coming from the PCs who’ve had four different premiers in four years (Stelmach, Redford, Hancock and Prentice), changed the way they budgeted $45 billion in revenues three times in three years and lured 11 Wildrose MLAs, who were universally despised until defection day, into their caucus.

The new NDP government will do what every new government has done in every other province across Canada. Ms Notley will review her mandate, name her cabinet and set an agenda to deliver on the promises she’s made to Albertans. Then she’ll ensure that the public service understands its mandate and gets cracking.

Sure it’s a big job, but someone’s got to do it. Unfortunately for Mr Prentice and Mr Jean they’re so busy fearmongering that Albertans no longer believe they’re up to the task.

May 5: fearmongering or hopemongering? What’s it going to be Alberta?

Posted in Economics, Energy, Energy & Natural Resources, Politics and Government | Tagged , , , , , , , | 43 Comments

The Leaders Debate: Math is Hard, English is Harder

Posted on April 26, 2015 by susanonthesoapbox

“I know the math is difficult…” Jim Prentice to Rachel Notley during the Leaders Debate Apr 23, 2015

Ms Soapbox doesn’t like math. As a child she thought numbers had personalities. Eights, sixes and nines were nice numbers; fours, fives and twos were sharp and nasty. Math was “difficult” because it was full of numerical personalities jostling for supremacy.

Imagine her surprise when the Leaders Debate revealed that numbers were treacherous too.

Mintzed

In the Debate Mr Prentice tried to discredit the Wildrose by arguing that their numbers didn’t “add up” and they couldn’t possibly reduce public spending by $18 billion as promised. Wildrose leader Mr Jean retorted that Jack Mintz, a well-respected economist and advisor to Mr Prentice, had reviewed the WR budget and concluded the numbers did indeed “add up”.

Mr Jean “Mintzing” Mr Prentice

So let me get this straight. Jack Mintz, reviewed both the PC budget and the Wildrose budget and said they both “add up” even though the PCs say the WR budget falls $18 billion short.

Yep, numbers are treacherous.

So forget the numbers (they’re elastic and will say anything if you squeeze them hard enough). Focus on Mr Prentice’s words.

In Dec 2014 a somber Mr Prentice warned Albertans that tanking oil prices had created an “unprecedented” fiscal crisis that he could fix with a “once in a generation” budget. The budget would include “tough choices” that required Mr Prentice to seek a fresh mandate before he could, in good conscience, take action.

Then he launched a barrage of trial balloons, like flares flying off a sinking ship, to test how just how “tough” he dared to be.

Fast forward to Debate night.

Tough-ish

Mr Prentice’s opening and closing statements indicate that in the space of three short months he’s had a change of heart. Yes, Albertans are facing “important challenges”, even “significant challenges”, but “we are not facing challenges that are greater than what we’ve faced in the past and overcome.”  Been there, done that, ready to do it again.

Mr Prentice “Stabilizing” Grim Jim

The focus now was on “stability” and “leadership” and on who would provide a “realistic plan” (take that, Wildrose!) that harnesses “our free enterprise spirit“ (take that, NDP!) and optimism” (take that, Grim Jim!)

The Wildrose: $18 billion in waste

Mr Prentice’s attempt to undermine the Wildrose plan was hobbled by the fact that Mr Jean refused to provide any details on where the $18 billion in cuts would come from. All Mr Jean would say was “look it up, it’s on page 5”.

So Mr Prentice swung his attention to Ms Notley, the only opponent he deemed worthy a “serious discussion…about the future of the province.”*

The NDP: corporate tax and royalty review

Actually Mr Prentice focused on Ms Notley right from the start, turning to Ms Notley ten times more frequently than Dr Swann and three times more frequently than Mr Jean. Oh, and was it just me, or did Mr Prentice show his nervousness by calling her Ms Notchley twice???

Mr Prentice attacked her proposal to increase corporate taxes to 12%, arguing that it would destroy the “Alberta Advantage” and kill jobs. Ms Notley pointed out that BC raised corporate taxes and jobs increased and that Ontario decreased corporate taxes and lost jobs.

Ms Notley “Responding” to Mr Prentice’s math

Her point (in words, not numbers) was that it’s not that simple: the Alberta Advantage is more than just having the lowest corporate taxes in the nation. It includes having no sales tax, an educated workforce, decent healthcare and so on.

Mr Prentice ridiculed the NDP plan to create a resource commission, saying that the results of the last royalty review were “devastating”.

Ms Notley replied that the royalty review did not cause the international drop in oil prices (she’s right, Alberta may think it’s the centre of the oil universe, but it’s not OPEC), and the commission would be a transparent forum to ensure Albertans get the best value for their natural resources.

This exchange illustrates why it’s critical to think about the words.

Mr Prentice is fearmongering. He attempted to tar Notley’s resource commission with his own government’s half-hearted attempt to improve royalty returns. It ended disastrously because his government allowed Big Oil to make the government the scapegoat when oil prices dropped in response to global market forces.

Ms Notley’s proposal is something entirely different. She’s calling for a standing commission created under Bill 209 to ensure transparency and accountability in the management of Alberta’s natural resources. The commission would make recommendations on royalty rates, value-added proposals and long term sustainability of non-renewable resources to the Legislature which presumably would include a few representatives of the PC party to keep them from going hog wild.        

Ms Notley “Winning” the Debate

The Liberals: little traction

Dr Swann made some excellent comments about healthcare and the environment. He was all but ignored by Mr Prentice who was singularly focussed on destroying Ms Notley’s credibility.

Words matter

Cognitive linguist, George Lakoff, says “TV debates are not primarily about policy details and the numbers, [they’re] about choosing a moral leader”.**

Mr Prentice went into this election expecting a coronation. Instead he’s fighting for his political life. He chose his words carefully during the Debate and he’ll choose his words carefully over the next eight days.

Will his words reflect moral leadership or will he default to Harperesque attacks on Ms Notley and the NDP? Will he respect Albertans struggling to make up their minds or continue to throw around platitudes telling them that their “spirit”, “ingenuity” and “optimism” will overcome these not-out-of-the-ordinary challenges?

Words matter, especially for a politician who called an unnecessary election and is now in a three-way race to the finish line.

*Calgary Herald, Apr 25, 2015, A7

**http://georgelakoff.com/2012/10/15/moral-leadership-what-obama-has-to-show-tomorrow-in-the-debate-performance-and-for-real/#more-1964

Posted in Politics and Government | Tagged , , , , | 35 Comments

The Prentice Campaign: How NOT to Frame the Debate

Posted on April 19, 2015 by susanonthesoapbox

Frank Luntz, famed political consultant to the Republican Party, said when it comes to political hot buttons “those who define the debate will determine the outcome.*

Given the mess Mr Prentice has made of the “Team Prentice” campaign he may want to give Mr Luntz a call.

Mr Prentice defined the debate in Election 2015 as…what, exactly? The “once in a generation” budget that strikes the right balance between the hatchet wielding Wildrose and the tax-and-spend NDP or the “under new management” premier who is remaking his own corrupt party?

Let’s take a closer look.

The Budget

After months of dire warnings about the sorry state of Alberta’s economy Mr Prentice unveiled his “once in a generation” budget. It was a colossal flop.

The NDP said it didn’t go far enough because it shielded the corporate sector while burdening the rest of us with 59 new taxes and levies that would see Albertans pay more for less services. The majority of Albertans agreed.

The Wildrose said it went too far. Instead of increasing taxes they want Mr Prentice to focus on his bloated government. They said they’d save $10 billion in five years simply by eliminating jobs and cutting waste.

Mr Prentice said the NDP plan will kill jobs (the NDP shot back with an $89 million job creation plan) and that the Wildrose plan can’t be done. He wheeled out five, count ‘em, five, cabinet ministers to prove it. They said: the Wildrose plan can’t be done. Yeah, that helped.

Then Mr Prentice blinked.

He pledged to freeze public sector salaries until Alberta balances its budget (in three years if the sun, the moon and the stars align). So much for dealing respectfully with the unions. No raise for you, now beat it.

He promised “efficiency teams”, front line workers and industry reps (also known as consultants), to find ways to save money and cut regulations.

And he promised to reduce Alberta’s 320 agencies, boards and tribunals (ABCs) by 25%. We have 320 ABCs??? Who are they? What do they do? It’s not clear what criteria Mr Prentice will use to make the 25% cut, but I’d suggest looking at the utility or futility of their work.

By tacking to the right Mr Prentice allowed the Wildrose to define a critical element in the debate—who deserves the mandate to pursue an austerity budget.    

“Under new management”

Mr Prentice says he’s changing the culture of government by setting a new tone at the top (if this sounds like corporate buzz-speak, that’s because it is).

Here’s how Mr Prentice’s government responds to hot button issues.

Schools: The government is embarking on the biggest school construction program in history. It invited the public to monitor its progress by checking out the list of schools under construction.

One small snag. The term “under construction” does not mean shovels in the ground.

The Opposition visited 38 schools the government identified as “under construction”. They found billboards in empty fields.

When pressed, Infrastructure Minister Bhullar said these fields are indeed schools “under construction” because when the government awards a construction contract it classifies the school as “under construction” for recordkeeping purposes.**

Long term care: Albertans understand that in order to reduce wait times in ER and for surgery it is necessary to move seniors out of acute care hospitals and into long term care facilities.

Health Minister Mandel announced 1500 new LTC beds, but when grilled by the Opposition, he couldn’t explain where these beds were, when they would be built, whether they were new beds or previously closed beds or where the money was coming from to staff them.***

Stalled legislation: The Education Act was passed in December 2012. It supports a new education policy that’s been in the works since 2008. It was drafted, debated and passed by the government and now sits on a shelf along with 55 other laws that have never been proclaimed into force. Why?

Mr Prentice says laws can be delayed because the regulations supporting them require public consultation. Uh huh. The government rolled through two and a half years and three different cabinet ministers…apparently no one can get this law off the ground.

Mr Prentice also said laws can be delayed because they conflict with the Criminal Code.****

Excuse me? Is Mr Prentice saying that his government will draft legislation, take it to the floor of the Legislature, debate it for days on end and after it is proclaimed, notice that, oops, it violates the Criminal Code?

Transparency and accountability: Mr Prentice promised to clean up government by setting the tone at the top. There would be no Mike Duffy expense report hi-jinks on his watch.

Unfortunately some of his ministers are tone deaf. They created a new “corporate events” expense category which, surprise, surprise, is not disclosed as a ministerial expense.****

Mr Prentice’s reaction? “Not me!!” Actually his exact words were “it predates me as the premier”.

Not me!

In the six months since Mr Prentice took office he’s used the “not me” excuse to distance himself from everything from the government’s over reliance on royalty revenues to its decision to sink billions of dollars into the North West Upgrader.

Mr Prentice is defining the election debate as: “old PC government: not me; new PC government: me, me, me”.

Unfortunately for Mr Prentice Albertans know that he can’t hide from his government’s past mistakes. They also recognize that his “under new management” government is not responding to the tone at the top which is either missing or has fallen on deaf ears.

Consequently when Mr Prentice asks Albertans to “Choose Alberta’s Future” he’ll be surprised by the large number of Albertans who choose “not Prentice”.

*Words That Work, p 170

**Hansard, March 12, 2015, p 602

***Hansard, Mar16, 2015, p 626

****Calgary Herald, Apr 15, 2015, A4

Posted in Politics and Government | Tagged , , , , , | 25 Comments

Prentice Drops the “E” Word on Day One

Posted on April 12, 2015 by susanonthesoapbox

Extremist: /ɛkˈstriːmɪst/ noun, chiefly derogatory: A person who holds extreme political or religious views, especially one who advocates illegal, violent or other extreme action—Oxford dictionary

Hysterical rhetoric

Of all the bonehead things Premier Prentice could have said in his campaign kick-off speech, warning Albertans to beware of “extreme ideas or ideologies” takes the cake.

Prime Minister Harper labeled ISIL “extremists” and “terrorists”. He girded his loins and sent in the troops.

Premier Prentice labelled the Wildrose and the NDP “the extreme right and the extreme left”. He girded his campaign team and sent in the spin doctors.

Are you an extremist?

And that’s on Day 1 of the campaign trail. God only knows what weird and wonderful things he’ll come up with by Day 28.

But hey, it’s politics, we should expect some mudslinging, right?

Wrong.

It’s one thing to sling mud at your political opponents. They’re used to it. Abe Lincoln’s detractors called him everything from a “rail-splitter” to a “third-rate backwoods lawyer” (I’m not sure which word was the insult, “backwoods” or “lawyer”).

It’s quite another thing to sling mud at citizens who support a political party other than your own. That’s not mudslinging. That’s an utter lack of respect for the democratic process that permits more than one political party to exist at one time.

The hard truth

In addition to calling Albertans names, Mr Prentice says the Tories are the only party prepared to tell Albertans the “hard truth”. It’s easy, he says, for the Wildrose or the NDP to criticize his budget, but it’s “incumbent” upon them to put forward their own realistic plans so that Albertans can judge their solutions against the Tory solution.

Mr Prentice is half-right.

It is indeed easy to criticize Mr Prentice’s Budget 2015. It promises to take Alberta off the resource revenue roller coaster but fails to do so.    

Mr Prentice promises to balance the budget in three years and start depositing half of Alberta’s royalty revenue into the Heritage Savings Trust Fund by 2020. Most importantly, Mr Prentice promises to wean the government of its addiction to energy royalties and stop using volatile resource revenues to plug holes in its operating and capital budgets.

HAH!

Budget 2015 starts on the right foot. In 2015-16 resource revenues make up just 6.7% of all revenues the government requires to provide public services. But by 2019-20 resource revenues balloon to 16% of all revenues, making the government even more dependent on booming oil prices.

Brian Jean, an extremist?

To further increase the frisson of uncertainty, Budget 2015 is based on WTI oil prices of $54.84 in 2015-16 and $62.80 in 2016-17 (rising ultimately to $83.83 in 2019-20 when the first transfers to the Heritage Trust Fund are expected to take place).

Just one small snag. The US Dept of Energy expects WTI oil prices to come in $2 to $5 lower for the same period. And to make matters worse, the successful conclusion of the Iran nuclear deal will likely reduce oil prices an additional $5 to $15 by 2016.

Mr Prentice’s Budget 2015 isn’t taking Alberta off the resource revenue roller coaster, it’s strapping Albertans firmly into the Mad Mouse carnival ride at the OPEC amusement park.

Lougheed, Klein and, um, who?

Mr Prentice characterizes Budget 2015 as a budget worthy of Alberta’s legendary premiers, Peter Lougheed and Ralph Klein. He challenges the Wildrose and the NDP to show Albertans how they would plug the $5 billion deficit resulting from his own government’s failure to manage Alberta’s economy through the good times.

And here’s where it gets interesting.

The Wildrose promise to reverse Prentice’s tax hikes and cut $2.2 billion by reducing waste and eliminating 3200 civil service management jobs. The mantle of Ralph Klein, the king of the austerity budget, rests comfortably on the shoulders of Wildrose leader Brian Jean.

Rachel Notley, an extremist?

The NDP promise a true progressive personal tax, fair corporate taxes, tax credits to support a job creation plan and Bill 209, a bill to ensure that Albertans receive full value for their natural resources in accordance with the principles set out by Peter Lougheed. NDP leader Rachel Notley rightly deserves the mantle of Peter Lougheed, who she wryly points out wins the “Extremist of the Day” award for proposing a corporate tax hike in 2011.

What about Mr Prentice? Sadly he doesn’t deserve carry the mantle of premiers Lougheed or Klein, let alone wear it.

Mr Prentice’s budget is fiscally irresponsible. It binds the government’s ability to deliver (and staff) schools and hospitals to an increasingly volatile global oil market… and plunges the province into $30 billion of debt in the process.

Mr Prentice’s government is socially conservative. It took a national outcry to prevent the Tories from passing legislation that blatantly discriminated against gay school children.

Mr Prentice’s government is undemocratic. The premier gleefully gutted the Official Opposition when his own government held an overwhelming majority of seats. Heaven forbid that someone from across the aisle might try to hold his government to account.

There is indeed an extremist party in Alberta. It’s decked out in Tory blue.

Posted in Politics and Government | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 24 Comments

Jim Prentice’s Budget: The Not-So-Subtle Language of Money

Posted on April 5, 2015 by susanonthesoapbox

“There is no fortress so strong that money cannot take it.” — Cicero

On Mar 24, 2015 Jim Prentice sent Albertans a message of such heartless cynicism that only the most naïve amongst us would fail to understand.

Money talks.

Here’s what Jim Prentice’s Budget 2015* told Albertans.

Corporations matter, you don’t

When asked why the government did not raise corporate taxes, Finance Minister Robin Campbell replied “The corporate sector is going to do their part, but we have to do our part also.”**

This is utter nonsense.

Mr Campbell looking somber

The corporate sector did its part for its shareholders when it laid off 14,000 Albertans in the month of February alone. It protected its balance sheet and kept its shareholders happy.

The government failed to do its part for Albertans when it refused to entertain an increase in the corporate tax rate. The decision to raise personal income taxes by 1.5% for those earning over $100,000 should have been mirrored by an increase in the corporate tax rate. Even a paltry 1% increase would have created a revenue stream of $500 million.

Mr Prentice also rejected a royalty review. However his willingness to boost the royalty rates for sand, silt and gravel companies indicates that not all royalties are sacrosanct, only those generated by his friends in the oil and gas sector.

Furthermore Mr Prentice sweetened the pot by granting the Department of Energy an additional $250 million while insisting that the departments of Health, Education, Innovation and Advanced Education “absorb” growth pressures of $950 million, $200 million and $80 million respectively. The $250 million bonus is for “running the Alberta Energy Regulator”, a government agency that was 100% industry funded…until now.***

And if that’s not enough, energy companies need not fret about the government’s plan to diversify the economy. It will continue to proceed at a snail’s pace. Mr Prentice set aside a trifling $28 million to support “commercialization capacity focused on diversifying Alberta’s economy.” Gosh, a whole $28 million in a $48.4 billion budget. Can you spare it Jim?

Other friends and insiders make out like bandits

While Health, Education, and Innovation and Advanced Education are fighting over the short end of the stick other governmental agencies, boards and commissions (the resting place for PC loyalists) get a $60 million windfall, bumping their budgets from $580 million to $640 million, with absolutely no justification whatsoever.

Given the Auditor General’s discovery that one such agency, Travel Alberta (which needs 50 managers to supervise 100 employees) failed to properly approve senior managers’ expense claims, a little caution may be in order.

Cue the little match girl

In addition to asking the departments of Health, Education and Innovation and Advanced Education to “absorb” a $1.23 billion operational shortfall (no more front line staff for you!) Mr Prentice expects schools, universities, colleges and hospitals to augment their capital spending requirements by “self-financing” to the tune of $1.6 billion over the next five years.

The little match girl

“Self-financing” is accounting-speak for “charity”.

And to introduce an element of sport (got to keep those schools and hospitals on their toes) Mr Prentice cut the charitable tax credit from 21% down to 12.75%.

May I suggest that until our government perfects the “field-of-dreams-build-it-and-they-will-come” model of providing education and healthcare, we’ll be better off with fewer understaffed schools and hospitals—unless of course the government has figured out how to educate children in teacherless schools and cure the sick in nurseless hospitals.

Your children don’t count either

With the exception of a minor tweak to the personal income tax rate for people earning over $100,000 and 59 new user fees and levies, Mr Prentice made absolutely no changes to Alberta’s fiscal structure.

Budgetary shortfalls will continue be covered by direct borrowing and funneling projects through public-private partnerships (P3s)—the government plans to borrow $30 billion over the next five years. Debt service payments will hit $1.9 billion by 2020.

Mr Prentice looking somber

The government will continue to rely on oil revenues to round out the budget. It is crossing its fingers in the hope that oil prices improve in the second half of 2015. Bitumen and crude royalties must rise from $1.9 billion today to $7.5 billion by 2019 in order for the government to divert 50% of its oil revenues into the Heritage Trust Fund to buttress budgetary shortfalls down the road.

Not to put too fine a point on it, the government’s ability to provide public services continues to depend on the kindness of strangers—in this case OPEC.

Unfortunately if Mr Prentice’s crystal ball is as defective as that of his predecessors our children will be digging themselves out of financial hole even deeper than the one we find ourselves in today.

The power of money vs the power of the ballot box

Budget 2015 showed us the power of money. Mr Prentice will take good care of Corporate Alberta; the rest of us are out in the cold.

Cicero said there is no fortress so strong that money cannot take it…he was wrong.

There is a fortress that all the money in the world cannot buy. It’s called the Alberta Legislature.  Exert your power.  Vote.

*http://finance.alberta.ca/publications/budget/budget2015/fiscal-plan-complete.pdf

** Daily Oil Bulletin, Mar 31, 2015

***Budget 2015, p 20 and https://www.aer.ca/documents/about-us/AER_Brochure.pdf

Posted in Alberta Health Care, Economics, Education, Energy, Politics and Government | Tagged , , , , | 20 Comments

The Interview We Wish We Had With Premier Prentice on Budget 2015

Posted on March 29, 2015 by susanonthesoapbox

“I believe we show who we are, and how much we care, by what we do.”—Stephen Harper, Canada’s prime minister

In his March 24 “State of the Province Address” Mr Prentice urged Albertans to receive his new budget in a spirit of openness. He said if we all act responsibly we can dig the government out of the $7 billion financial hole it created for itself.

Budget 2015 is Fiscal Fairyland. So its promoter, Mr Prentice, should have no problem giving Ms Soapbox an imaginary interview to discuss its imaginary benefits.

Mr Premier you say the current fiscal structure is unsustainable and that thoughtful, measured, fair and balanced leadership is required to dig Albertans out of this mess.

Take me through the “thoughtful and measured” part.

“Thoughtful and measured” refers to the teeny tiny changes I made to the fiscal structure.

I told Albertans the sky was falling and that I would table a “once in a generation” budget so shocking that Albertans would demand I call an early election to get the mandate to proceed…then I changed my mind.

Mr Prentice Explains “miniscule”

Instead of going hog wild I created a second flat tax. Anyone making less than $100,000 will continue to pay the same old 10% flat tax. Anyone making more than $100,000 will pay a 11.5% flat tax in 2019.

That’s a “thoughtful and measured” (and miniscule) increase 1.5%.

Oh, and I layered in 59 mini-taxes. I prefer to call them “fees” and “levies.”

The 11.5% tax rate is significantly lower than our neighbours. In BC personal taxes top out at 16.8%. In Saskatchewan it’s 15%.    

Exactly! The 1.5% bump pushes our top tax rate up to a pitiful 11.5% but the Wildrosers will go wild! Chortle.

What about the “fair and balanced” part? Why didn’t you raise the 10% corporate flat tax by a “miniscule” 1%? That would generate $500 million in revenue.    

Sigh. How many times do I have to say this? Raising corporate taxes is a job killer. Besides I promised Corporate Alberta that I’d do everything I could to protect their profits which, as you know, drive bonuses and protect stock option value. (You’ll notice I didn’t touch royalties either).

You could raise corporate taxes by 1% and still be lower than the rest of Canada. It’s not like Corporate Alberta is going to throw the oilsands in the back of a truck and hit the road.     

*Grits his teeth* Raising corporate taxes is a J.O.B. K.I.L.L.E.R.

Is the corollary also true? Not raising corporate taxes will save jobs?

Heck no. I can’t tell corporations not to fire people. But let me be clear, corporations are resilient. They will weather this downturn. We will return to a healthy economy in 2018-19 because…well, because I say so…

Right. Moving on. You said despite what amounts to a $1 billion cut in the health budget and the $90 million cut in classroom support there will be no impact on front line workers in healthcare and education.

You also said 80,000 people will move to Alberta this year. And an additional 12,000 kids will go to school. But you’re not hiring a single new teacher and Alberta Health Services is under a hiring freeze.

Health Minister & Education Minister: No cuts to front line!

Yes, well the front lines are well positioned to find ways of ensuring Albertans receive superior value for their tax dollars, through eliminating waste and enhancing efficiency, by changing how we buy drugs and eliminating overcharges on cell phones, and streamlining bureaucracy and improving the quality and responsiveness of services by putting seniors into restorative care beds after surgery.*

Uh huh. Let’s talk about streamlining bureaucracy. Half our tax dollars go to 200 agencies, boards and tribunals that multiply like rabbits and provide a cosy resting place for PC insiders. For example, Travel Alberta costs Albertans $50 million. It’s got 50 managers who supervise 100 employees. Sounds a tad top-heavy, don’t you think?  

Mr Prentice Brandishing the Budget

I reject the implication they’re run by PC insiders. I’ve passed laws to ensure transparency. I’ve set up a sunshine list for jobs with salaries over $100,000. I’ve capped severance at 6 months’ salary.

Really? How did that work with the Gaming and Liquor Commission? Last year it paid $370,000 in severance (3 times base salary) to dump its VP strategy, transformation and ethics and $567,000 severance to get rid of the VP lottery and gaming services. That money would have filled the hole in the Auditor General’s budget and the Child Advocate’s budget with $150,000 left over. Care to comment?

No.    

Notwithstanding the cuts to public services you’re spending an additional $54 million on MLAs’ budgets, yes?

Yes. We need more help with communications and policy strategies.   

No kidding! (Ooops, sorry).

Let’s talk about debt. Your budget will put us $31 billion in debt by 2018. You say you’ll adopt “innovative and alternative approaches” to fund public services. Would that be public-private partnerships (P3s)?

Yes.

Like the private seniors care facilities that made a 27% profit last year?

*The premier fidgets in his chair*

One last question Mr Premier. Danielle Smith lost the Tory nomination in Highwood notwithstanding your personal endorsement and the support of four of your cabinet ministers. Any comment?  

Who cares. She served her purpose and now she’s gone.

Any else you’d like to add?

As Stephen Harper once said: “I believe we show who we are, and how much we care, by what we do.”

This budget shows Albertans who I am and how much I care.

It does indeed Mr Premier, it does indeed.

*Putting things Right, Strategic Plan to Secure Alberta’s Future p13

Posted in Alberta Health Care, Education, Energy, Politics and Government | Tagged , , , | 33 Comments

How to Stay Under the Radar When Bill C-51 Becomes Law

Posted on March 22, 2015 by susanonthesoapbox

Bill C-51 is an omnibus anti-terrorism bill that grants CSIS new information sharing powers and converts CSIS from a covert intelligence gathering organization to a covert enforcement agency.

No wonder Canadians don’t know what the heck is going on!  

Ms Soapbox is here to offer four simple suggestions to keep you out of trouble when Stephen Harper’s majority government finally passes this monstrous piece of legislation.

Get off the grid: Communicate by pencil and paper. Buy a manual typewriter. Stop posting snarky things about Harper on Facebook and Twitter. You don’t want to be identified as a troublemaker and your life will become a nightmare if you’re caught in a CSIS “disruption” operation (see below).

No more rallies, demonstrations, protests or sit-ins: Avoid any form of protest or civil disobedience, especially those organized by environmental or Aboriginal groups.

Why? Because unless you know for certain that the demo organizers got the municipal permits they need to congregate, wave signs or chain themselves to inanimate objects, the protest is not “lawful advocacy, protest or artistic expression” and as such is not immune from CSIS scrutiny (subject to Craig Forcese’s comments below).

If you’re hell bent on camping out with Occupy, waving a placard in the freezing cold outside the Legislature, staging a sit-in at your MP’s constituency office, or going on a wildcat strike, be warned that that your information may be shared with up to 17 government agencies and “any person, for any purpose” (Putin?) if CSIS thinks such activity “undermines the security of Canada” because unlawful protests are not exempt from the information sharing provision.

Craig Forcese says CSIS’s power to share information about protesters and disrupt their activities applies only to unlawful “foreign-influenced activities…that are detrimental to the interests of Canada and are clandestine or deceptive”.* Other analysts do not make this distinction.

In any event, Mr Forcese’s distinction offers little comfort given Mr Harper’s penchant for finding “foreign influencers” buried deep in the bosom of many Canadian charities and NGOs and the willingness of CSIS and the RCMP to undertake covert operations when the spirit moves them whether they have the legal power to do so or not. Play it safe. Avoid them all.

Or be prepared to have your private information held by 17 governmental agencies (including Revenue Canada and the Department of Health) zip from one department to another without your knowledge or consent. It’s like the persecution of First Nations advocate Dr Cindy Blackstock—only this time on steriods.**

Don’t be tarred by association: Cut all ties with activists like Greenpeace, the Canadian Civil Liberties Association, the Assembly of First Nations and their ilk.

Joanna Kerr, executive director of Greenpeace Canada, was one of the first witnesses to appear before the Commons committee reviewing Bill C-51.

She describes her experience in 10 words: Are you now, or have you ever been, a terrorist?***

The Greenpeace panel was not given an opportunity to present its concerns about Bill C-51 or make suggestions on how to prevent violations of constitutional and civil rights. Instead they were hectored by condescending Tory MPs who asked whether they were “fundamentally opposed to taking terrorists off the streets” and suggested that Greenpeace might be “a national security threat”.

Given that the RCMP identified Canada’s environment movement as “a growing and violent threat to Canada’s security” and labelled pipeline opponents (and First Nations) as “violent anti-petroleum extremists” such outrageous allegations cannot be taken lightly.****

Remember what happened to thousands of Americans who were denounced to the House Un-American Committee. They lost their reputations, their livelihoods and sometimes their lives. So keep your head down and your mouth shut. And for God’s sake stop writing cheques to these groups and signing their petitions!

Watch for “threat disruption”: No, it’s not a disturbance in the Force, a glitch in the Matrix or even your idiotic service provider forgetting to throw a switch somewhere, it’s CSIS exercising its power to “disrupt” the activities of someone it suspects of doing something it doesn’t like.

Most people aren’t terrorists, but the government is quick to label people “terrorists” even if they have no clear link to extremists. Our very own Justice Minister, Peter MacKay, suggested the two would-be shooters in the Halifax mall plot were the kind of people who were “susceptible to being motivated” by the Islamic State. Meaning what exactly ????  

CSIS will be given the power to disrupt activities by any means (including breaching one’s Charter rights) short of causing bodily harm, infringing sexual integrity or obstructing justice.

In the McCarthy era, the FBI’s disruption techniques included burglaries, illegal wire taps, planting forged documents, spreading rumours, triggering IRS audits and leaking false information to the press. These techniques are child’s play compared to what CSIS can achieve in the clandestine world of 5 Eyes and PRISM.

Protect yourselves!

Bill C-51 gives CSIS, a covert organization, enhanced information gathering and enforcement powers with no corresponding increase in measures to protect Canadians from violations of privacy or the abuse of their fundamental rights.

Consequently Canadians must take steps to protect themselves.

And if you follow these simple precautions terrorists will no longer “hate our freedoms” because we won’t have any.

Mission Accomplished Mr Harper.

*http://craigforcese.squarespace.com/national-security-law-blog/2015/2/19/bill-c-51-does-it-reach-protest-and-civil-disobedience.html

**http://aptn.ca/news/2013/07/08/cindy-blackstock-gets-ready-to-take-on-the-government-again-i-just-want-them-to-stop/

***http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/03/17/worried-about-c-51-youre-probably-a-terrorist/

****http://www.desmog.ca/2015/02/26/leaked-rcmp-report-fuels-fears-harper-s-anti-terrorism-bill-will-target-enviros-first-nations

NOTE: The cartoons appeared on the VotetoStopHarper FB page. If you’d like to “like” the page here’s the link: https://www.facebook.com/StopHarper2015/photos/a.1467978740089550.1073741828.1446413168912774/1472531129634311/?type=1&theater 

Posted in Crime and Justice, Politics and Government, Privacy and Surveillance | Tagged , , , , , , , | 21 Comments

Laurie Blakeman Takes a Symbolic Step…in the Wrong Direction

Posted on March 15, 2015 by susanonthesoapbox

Crikey!

On Friday Liberal MLA Laurie Blakeman announced that she’ll be running as a candidate for the Liberals, the Alberta Party and the Greens in the upcoming election…

…and on Sunday Ms Soapbox announced to her dad that she’d joined the NDP.  He swears he’ll never speak to her again.  

While I applaud the efforts of progressive MLAs and party leaders to cooperate I fail to understand how Ms Blakeman’s decision gets the progressives anywhere.

As journalist Graham Thomson points out this isn’t a merger of the Liberals, the Alberta Party and the Greens and it’s not a strategy for province-wide cooperation to reduce vote splitting since it affects only Ms Blakeman’s riding—which she’s held since 1997.*

Ms Blakeman in Liberal red

So if Ms Blakeman isn’t proposing a merger or a cooperation strategy, what is she proposing?

Ms Blakeman says she’s taking a step, the first step, toward unifying progressive voters.

Unfortunately that’s not the case.  And Ms Blakeman would know this if she’d bothered to read the Alberta Party and Green party’s policies before she stepped off into the abyss.

Policies matter

Even a quick read of the three parties’ policies reveals a shocking lack of alignment particularly in the case of the Alberta Party. If I’ve misread any party’s policies, please let me know.  

For example:

Democratic reform: the Liberals propose “instant run-off” elections (the voter picks his first, second and third choice candidates) where no candidate captures 50% of the vote. The Greens support proportional representation while the Alberta Party sticks to the status quo offering little more than platitudes requiring MLAs to listen to their constituents and not be top-down driven.

Energy:  The Liberals support oilsands expansion and pipeline construction on the condition that such activities are carried out under stricter environmental oversight.  The Greens want a moratorium on oilsands activity until better environmental regulations are in place.

The Alberta Party calls for balance between a robust energy industry and sustainable development, promising to develop policies that reflect the energy sector’s need for certainty, stability, the need to be competitive on a global scale and an “adequate” return on investment.

Think about that for a moment. 

The Alberta Party promises an energy future that safeguards Big Oil’s global competitiveness and guarantees an “adequate” return on investment.

The Alberta Party of Alberta Logo

Aside from the obvious question—why is it Albertans’ responsibility to subsidize Big Oil in the lean years—the Alberta Party policy will obliterate the free market, or what’s left of it, by using the government to protect Big Oil’s profit margins. Welcome to the petrostate.  

Health:  The Liberals and the Greens support publicly funded and publicly delivered healthcare.

The Alberta Party supports publicly funded healthcare, but is curiously silent about whether healthcare should be publicly or privately delivered, saying only that the present system isn’t working and we need something better. When Ms Soapbox raised the issue of public versus private delivery of healthcare with Alberta Party leader Greg Clark he was noncommittal.

Representing three parties

Ms Blakeman is deeply concerned that the Conservatives will win 80 out of 87 ridings in the next election.  She’s stepped up with a symbolic gesture to offer hope to progressive voters across the province.

Unfortunately she’s created confusion.  Instead of throwing her support behind the NDP who together with the Liberals could make a real difference in Alberta (they would have gained five additional seats had they worked together in 2012 and 2014) Ms Blakeman chose to represent two tiny parties.

Given the lack of policy alignment among these parties Ms Blakeman is hamstrung when it comes to taking a clear position on the critical issues facing Albertans.  She has only two options: make it up on the fly or say vote for me, I’m a shiny new consolidated party of one.

Ms Blakeman wearing the AP logo?

Perhaps Ms Blakeman thrives on ambiguity.  When asked which party’s caucus she would join after the election, she replied “That depends on how many there are, and I have no idea how that’s going to work out after the election.”*

Or perhaps Ms Blakeman is comfortable with Alberta Party policies and is simply being coy. When she made her announcement she chose to wear Alberta Party colours not Liberal red.**

Ms Soapbox cannot support a Liberal who adopts PC Lite policies and leaves nothing but confusion in her wake. And while Ms Soapbox respects her Liberal and Green friends she is shifting her support to the party with an inspirational leader, Rachel Notley, clearly defined progressive policies and forward momentum.

After the next election Ms Blakeman may be wearing Alberta Party blue, green and mustard yellow, but Ms Soapbox will be sporting NDP orange.

Ummm…Dad, can we talk?

* http://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/thomson-blakemans-coalition-of-one-is-confusing

**http://globalnews.ca/news/1881299/alberta-mla-laurie-blakeman-nominated-by-three-parties/

Posted in Alberta Health Care, Energy, Politics and Government | Tagged , , , , , , | 75 Comments