We’re still trying to make sense of this election.
There’s no question Rachel Notley’s NDP made phenomenal gains against the UCP.
They pulled in 776,000 votes (157,000 more than they received in 2019) and gained 39 seats (15 more than they had in 2019), but it still wasn’t enough to stop the UCP from forming government.
Pundits have suggested a number of reasons why the NDP didn’t win including:
- Notley’s performance in the debate (okay, Notley looked less comfortable than Smith but she made her arguments well, surely who was more poised shouldn’t be the determining factor),
- Notley’s focus on Smith as an unfit leader pulled media attention away from the NDP’s policies, (when, pray tell, does one have a discussion about Smith’s appalling behavior if not during the election campaign. Sadly, Smith’s abhorrent behavior made more interesting copy than a blow by blow description of their competing policies), and
- Notley’s announcement of the 3 point tax hike for large corporations. This policy had no impact on voters’ personal taxes, but the UCP used it to scare voters into thinking their personal tax rates were next.
The unfortunate consequence of #3 was it ran smack into the view that, to quote political scientist Lisa Young, Albertans seem to prefer “a party that offers up low taxes, high spending and promises of economic prosperity…no matter who the leader is.”
At the end of the day Alberta elections always devolve to this.
But this could change.
The petrostate
Andrew Nikiforuk, among others, defines Alberta as a petrostate—a place governed by a “social contract” whereby the government relies on royalties to keep taxes low and voters reward politicians who vow to keep taxes low by returning them to power.
Everything is rosy as long as oil prices stay high.
Nikiforuk says the time for political change is when oil prices are low and the government is starved of the royalty revenues it requires to provide the services the public demands.
But we’re now seeing another twist.
Even though oil prices are relatively high we’re experiencing a drop in the quality of public services and layoffs are continuing in the oil patch.
The “social contract” is not delivering for the people the way it should when oil prices are relatively high.
Why?
Because the UCP government starved public services before and during the pandemic and companies figured out how to run their businesses with fewer workers.
Layoffs
Suncor is a case in point.
In the first quarter of 2023 Suncor posted a $2.05 B profit (on an adjusted basis this was $1.81 B) however this wasn’t enough because it was a 34% decrease over last year.
So what did Suncor’s new CEO do?
He announced that Suncor would cut 1,500 jobs by the end of 2023. This is around 9% of its 16,558 employees. These cuts are in addition to the previously announced 20% cut to Suncor’s contractor work force and the 10% to 15% cuts Suncor announced in Q4 2020 (these cuts were completed in mid 2022).*
All of the cuts occurred or will occur under the UCP’s watch.
Compare this to the 2015 to 2019 time frame when the NDP were in power. Suncor cut 300 employees, (less than 3%) during that time.* Somehow Suncor and its workers managed to survive despite the fact that the NDP increased corporate taxes from 10% to 12% and oil prices tanked to the $40 range.
There is more at play now than just the price of oil.
And notwithstanding how much the UCP would like Albertans to believe that if the government takes care of the oil companies, the oil companies will take care of their workers, this simply isn’t true.
A small suggestion
So to come back to where we started.
I am not in a position to tell Notley’s NDP why they lost this election, but I would suggest the NDP start to think about positioning themselves for the next one.
The social contract the conservatives signed with the oil companies is shifting. The NDP’s vision for the future should recognize this fact.
Albertans are already feeling the impact of climate change and technology on the old economic drivers; they know (or will soon know) that things are changing whether they like it or not.
This is an opportunity for the NDP to focus on a vision that includes a forward looking economy that acknowledges the impact of climate change, while at the same time creating a society that is more equitable and provides a better quality of life through strong publicly funded and publicly delivered services.
The future is too precious. We have to try.
*See Suncor Annual Information Forms for 2015 – 2022
Susan on the Soapbox 
Seems like our newly elected United Clown Party doesn’t understand economics or business. The oil industry will continue to do what’s good for them, not for Albertans. And Dodo Danielle will just keep throwing money and perks at them to keep her dream of Old Alberta alive. So will she find all these people new jobs…oh wait, she doesn’t like “just transition”….And guess what, this has nothing to do with the Feds sticking it to Alberta….
Sharon, I agree. I can’t figure out why people like Smith who’ve taken economics don’t understand the first thing about how business works. It’s all about shareholder value. And if a corporation can figure out how to get the government to subsidize its operations it will.
I can’t wait to see what the raft of harebrained schemes Smith is going to saddle us with.
“Albertans are already feeling the impact of climate change and technology on the old economic drivers; they know (or will soon know) that things are changing whether they like it or not. ” – Unfortunately, it appears that too many of them are still in la-la-stick-your-head-in-the-sand-and-ignore-it mode…
I hear you Kelly. One thing that give me (a little) hope is I’m noticing more conversations which begin with “I don’t want to give this climate change stuff too much credence, but it’s been unnaturally hot (or cold, or wet, or whatever) lately.” I figure the minute I head a “but” a tiny light bulb has gone off. We need to fire up more and more light bulbs as fast as possible. Headlines like on the front page of today’s Globe — “Number of wildfires across country straining resources” — help.
But…the wildfires were started by arsonists!!! They set the fires all over the country. We should believe the rumors we started, not facts or experts. This has nothing to do with the past four decades of climate change unfolding in front of our eyes, or the great melt of our glaciers and mountain snowpack. I flew over the Rockies a year after the great 2013 flood in southern Alberta and saw very little of the year-round snow of past decades. It means nothing. The groundwater is not drying up and drought is not settling in, and pffft to the intense heat anomaly over western Canada in May. You don’t like warm weather? What’s wrong with you? UCP cuts to wildfire budgets, the elimination of the quick response rappel team and Danielle Smith’s refusal to call the federal government for help until there was no turning back also have nothing to do with it. Wildfires are unpredictable. Smoke? What smoke. The haze that smells like smoke is just low-level clouds. I’ll go to choir practice and sing to show you how harmless it is. Pray for rain. This is God’s work. Let’s hire some arson investigators and ignore the big elephant sitting on the sofa in the living room. The floor is sagging. Let’s ignore that, too.
It’s exhausting keeping up with the bind-minding needed to keep the blinders on. You might think I’ve made all this up, but these are things I’ve *actually* heard from *actual* people recently. All except for the elephant. Nobody talks about that.
Danielle Smith made a lot of extravagant spending promises and effectively soothed nervous Conservatives into thinking that she would provide sane government and stability… including big oil of course (that’s what Conservatives expect in Alberta). During the election she avoided talking about her more disconcerting ideas, such as continuing to privatize health care, full implementation of the regressive school curriculum, paying big money to oil companies to clean up their mess (something they are already obligated to do…), leaving CPP, establishing an Alberta Police force, etc. but I think it will only be a matter of time before these ideas are fully pursued as government policy. Take Back Alberta will be flexing their influence and pushing Smith and her mostly rural MLA’s to Take Alberta Backward.. to continue to fight with Justin Trudeau, to fight realities such as climate change, etc. I think it will be important for the strong and principled NDP Opposition to keep a score card of UCP promises and what they deliver…. and the human and financial costs of these policies. I hope there is sufficient money left over from the election so that NDP can broadcast the outcomes of UCP governance via media ads rather than just depending on the media. We all need to be vigilant about what the UCP is doing and be prepared to write letters, to advocate and to protest. We need to continue to financially support the NDP and other evidence based advocacy organizations such as Friends of Medicare, Public Interest Alberta, Support Our Students, etc. Its up to the NDP caucus and all of us to do everything we can to protect our public health and education systems, and prevent the ill conceived and costly UCP ideas from taking our province backward.
Lee, very well said!
I especially like the idea of the NDP keeping a score card of the UCP promises and what they deliver. If we’ve learned anything from this election, it’s that the public becomes numb in the face of nonstop. We just can’t keep up.
That’s why we need the NDP to provide a clear, accurate accounting of what the UCP promised and what they’re delivering, what it costs and how those tax dollars (RStar, etc) could be better spent strengthening our public services.
Given all the outrageous campaign lies and Danielle Smith’s great skill at telling whoppers (with a smile) there is a need for rigorous fact checking like they finally learned to do in the USA, given Trumps propensity to lie. We need to know the number and rating of “Pinocchio’s” for each public statement made by Danielle Smith. And now the entire UCP caucus will be perfecting their skills at “snowing” the public as they did during the election. Our media needs to mount a defence to this strategy!
Smith performed well and exceeded very low expectations. Some similarity to Trudeau in 2015. I think the NDP underestimated her.
The NDP ballot box question was leadership and it didn’t get them over the hump in Calgary. Big missed opportunity and our public services and future wellbeing will suffer.
I would have liked to see an attack on Smith’s fiscal recklessness and sole reliance on high oil prices. “What will happen to our hospitals and our kids’ teachers when oil goes down?! Cuts, cuts, cuts. Brace yourselves Alberta.” I didn’t hear this in the debate; just a dispute over Smith’s conspiracy-minded past.
Notley has to wear this and she said as much in her speech. I really hope she doesn’t hang on for another general election. She lost the rubber match and lost her own ballot box question. Perhaps she thinks the government will fall under Smith’s slim majority but I don’t see that happening. Smith is the best Alberta caucus leader that we’ve see since Notley and, before that, pre-2004 Klein.
Time to step aside and let the cream of the NDP crop rise to the top. I like Rakhi Pancholi for the work needed to win and effectively govern.
Rick: Danielle Smith isn’t the best caucus leader, because she has shown her political tenure to be one based on deceit, manipulation, and misjudgement. Ralph Klein was the same way. Both have a hyper inflated ego, and the mistakes both of them made will likely never be paid off. The UCP leadership race gave us Danielle Smith, after 6 attempts, with such a low level of support, that was under 54%. If that’s the best we have amongst other very rotten UCP leadership candidates, it speaks volumes, as to how bad the UCP are.
Totally agree Dwayne. Danielle and Ralph are similar: they have the gift of the gab. They are personalities, both with erratic behaviour. Danielle was kept on a short leash the entire campaign so she could win. But she will soon have her foot back in her mouth and will be non apologizing for our misinterpretation of what she meant. Everyone is watching now and Alberta may have lost its Advantage.
Dwayne and Sharon, I agree, both Smith and Klein are showboats who’ve tricked the public into thinking just because they’re slick, they’re smart. Remember when Klein deregulated the electrical market and admitted that he had no idea what that meant. Or more recently when Smith pledged to pardon people convicted of covid health restrictions without knowing that premiers don’t have that power in Canada. The Ethics Commissioner’s report indicates she was told she couldn’t pardon anyone many times, yet she persisted in trying to find a way to get her anti-vaxx friends off the hook.
This bunch is as dumb as a sack of hammers.
Rick,
I agree with your point about taking Smith to task on her fiscal recklessness and sole reliance on high oil prices. In fact I think it would have helped if Notley either in the debate or elsewhere hammered the UCP’s record while in government. Smith made appalling decisions (Sovereignty Act, calling upon the Crown to let Pawlowski off,) these were her actions as premier, not a wingnut talk show host. Add to that the UCP’s record under Kenney (money wasted on court cases challenging the carbon tax and losing, staring public healthcare and education so that when the pandemic hit everything was on the verge of collapse, then declaring the pandemic over which resulted in hundreds more people sick and dying).
I’m wrestling with when Notley should step aside. Perhaps she should stay long enough to get her shadow cabinet and caucus up and running. As you said there are many top quality candidates who could step into the role of leader. and Rakhi Pancholi is an outstanding suggestion.
You can fool all of the people some of the time and some of the people all of the time, which is enough to elect an unhinged, right wing, oil lobbyist.
Once again, the NDP ran a tepid campaign, which brings to mind the definition of insanity. The individuals that advised the NDP this go around should be encouraged to look for employment opportunities elsewhere.
Jaundiced Eye: “unhinged, right wing, oil lobbyist” Perfect!
I echo your comments about the NDP campaign. Individually the NDP candidates I was following closely (including Rachel) were remarkable, high energy, clear communication. But the campaign as a whole seemed diffuse, not focused. It sent too many messages at once. The shotgun approach meant that the messages didn’t stick.
Brian Mason was all over Twitter begging the NDP communications team to get focused. It would have helped, but the other think Mason said was that even if you added up all the “borrowed” conservative votes it wouldn’t have been enough. We failed to get the young people to fully engage.
Which brings us back to where this conversation started–the campaign strategists didn’t perform as well as they should have to push the NDP into government.
Susan: Thanks for sharing another great blog. I do not blame Rachel Notley and the NDP for why they lost the last provincial election. The blame has to put onto complacent media for basically propping up Danielle Smith, and the UCP, and not questioning anything Danielle Smith was saying during the provincial election debate, or from the UCP ‘s election ads, both of which were fill of errors, and outright lies. The media also never made the UCP accountable for what they were doing wrong during their four years in power, including their very costly debacles, that cost us billions of dollars in many instances, and their harsh austerity measures, that made life harder for many people, very poor covid response measures, which made Alberta a record for covid cases in Canada, and even in North America, at one point, among other things. It was also suspect timing with Suncor’s layoffs. Trickle down economics aren’t something that produces jobs. If this was announced prior to the provincial election in Alberta, the UCP would have likely been defeated. Close to $10 billion was lost from these corporate tax cuts. Oil prices are not going to be $100, or more, at anytime soon, and this isn’t going to help, because the UCP is likely going to resort to more harmful austerity measures, in the near future. It will also be interesting to see how Albertans are going to feel about the botched hockey arena vote bribe scheme for Calgary, that they will have to pay for, having to pay $1 billion, or more for an unwanted provincial police force, that rural municipal leaders made clear they do not want, the open pit coal mining in the Rocky Mountains, which Danielle Smith wants to reallow, that has staunch opposition from Albertans, based on pollution matters, and destruction of the mountains, the provincial pension plan, which also is not favored by Albertans, because the UCP already lost $4 billion in a pension fund debacle, having to pay $20 billion for the R-Star mistake, the bad tax scheme, which also requires a costly referendum to set up, and many other things. Danielle Smith was also going to place in a shadow cabinet for Edmonton, made up of the defeated UCP MLAs. This is undemocratic as it gets, and the legality of it is also in question. Also, there may have been nefarious tactics that the UCP used to obtain power. In addition, stubbornness of many voters, who would never vote for anything else, except for the Conservatives, as well as a not so great voter turnout, didn’t help. Furthermore, how will Danielle Smith’s ethics issues play out? There’s also the issue of the tailings pond leaks in the northern part of the province, which went unaddressed by the UCP for months, and the wildfire response matters. It’s definitely going to be a very bumpy ride ahead with Danielle Smith and the UCP in charge. I’ll play some more fitting music. This is a composition from Jimmy Page, Jim McCarty, and Keith Relf, from the British blues/rock group, The Yardbirds, called Think About It. It is from around 1967. The Yardbirds had only three of their original members left, vocalist and harmonica player, Keith Relf, (who passed away tragically in May of 1976), Chris Dreja, who switched from rhythm guitar to bass, and drummer, Jim McCarty. The Yardbirds became a four piece group in late 1966, after the departure of guitarist Jeff Beck, who was a replacement for Eric Clapton in the group in early 1965, after EricClaptonquit the band. After the Yardbirds broke up in July 1968, Jimmy Page formed the supergroup Led Zeppelin with Robert Plant, John Bonham, and John Paul Jones. The Yardbirds are also in my music collection.
Dwayne, as you can see from my reply to Jaundiced Eye I think the NDP would have done better with a more focused campaign.
You presented an excellent list of UCP failings which have (or will) cost Alberta millions, if not billions, of dollars. All of these examples could all have been grouped under the heading “Can you afford another UCP government?” Given how focused the conservatives are on wasteful government, this tact would have countered the UCP’s claim that the NDP would be a big spending, wasteful government. Instead the campaign spent a lot of time on Smith’s character (BTW: I think Smith’s character also had to be addressed). That brings to mind another slogan “Can you trust Smith to spend your tax dollars wisely?” That one would hit both the trust and wasteful spending issues at the same time.
Anyway, it’s easy for me to second guess the campaign from my armchair, it’s an entirely different thing to be in the trenches. I think Rachel Notley did a fantastic job, I just wish she had better advisors.
PS Thank you for the Yardbirds clip. Very a propos!
I’m sure there will be a lot of soul searching by the party that did not win. It will be painful, but good. On the other hand the UCP may take the wrong message from their win and it could lead to their future demise, much like the PCs 2012 seemingly miracle win did.
All three of the reasons you mentioned are valid, but I feel #2 is especially important. The Smith that showed up for the debate was poised, confident, articulate and succesfully attacked, which bore little relation to the one the NDP tried to portray for weeks and months. In politics, never underestimate your opponent, you do so at your own peril.
However, it is easy to make a lot of promises as Smith did, after a miraculous recovery in oil prices. Unfortunately they can be a roller coaster – ask Kenney what happens when money becomes tighter and people are disappointed. Perhaps this roller coaster is why no conservative Premier since Klein has survived more than a term.
The NDP has increased its popular vote steadily over the last decade to come very close to winning this time and if Smith’s good fortune runs out they probably will in the future. So, yes this is the time for the NDP to reflect and learn the hard lessons so next time the results can be better.
Dave, that’s a very important nuance re: the debate that I hadn’t focused on. When Smith showed up, confident and articulate, she put paid to the NDP’s portrayal of her as an unhinged lunatic. Of course we don’t believe this is the true Smith, but for the undecided conservatives, that may have been all they needed to push them into the UCP camp. So in essence, it’s not that Notley “lost” the debate, but that Smith “won” it by staying cool, calm and on script.
As you said, oil prices won’t stay high forever. The Saudis are already talking about constraining supply because they think the price is too low, so we may well be on the downside of the roller coaster. Given all of Smith’s promises and the mishmash she has for a caucus, I don’t think she’ll survive the rocky ride.
Clearly Smith’s lies in the debate didn’t matter, just her appearance of being calm and somewhat rational.
Speaks to the idiocy of the general population.
Janna, yes it does. Which is why my husband and I gave serious consideration to leaving. However, our kids are here and we came so close this time, we have to stay and fight for the province we know we can be.
Susan: Here is my next song pick. This is a Randy Bachman composition from his time in the Guess Who, called A Wednesday In Your Garden. It is from 1968. I saw Randy Bachman 8 times live and met him, and I saw Burton Cummings 4 times live and met him. The Guess Who are also in my music collection.
Dwayne, what an interesting piece. I take it from your comment you’re an ardent Guess Who fan. I can certainly see why. I loved it. Thank you.
Good post. There may be hope for change but will it take some sort of almost disaster to wake people up.. Wish NDP had done more of what you suggest this time. But would media have even picked it up. They seem to prefer focus on conflict and whatever crazy thing Danielle thinks of. Not sure if I can stay in Alberta through this. Sad Sent from Yahoo Mail on Android
Linda, I agree with your take on the media. They get more clicks for short blurbs about something Smith said two years ago, than a thoughtful comparison of the UCP and NDP policies side by side. We are in the age of “too long to read”. Sadly that means lots of clicking and not much thinking.
Susan: What further proof do we need that Danielle Smith and the doesn’t support democracy?
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/alberta/article-ucp-plan-to-install-failed-candidates-in-edmonton-sparks-criticism/
Dwayne, I agree. Smith said nothing had been finalized, but the fact that she thought this was a good idea in the first place shows that she doesn’t understand or respect the democratic process. Edmonton has an elected city council and 20 elected MLAs.These politicians have a mandate to represent the electorate and are accountable when they fail to do so. And yet, here’s Smith suggesting the “council of the defeated” is a good idea. Absolutely nuts.
What to make of this election?? There’s likely a number of things, and to be sure, pundits will weigh in with their perspective. For me, what we make of it depends on whether or not we pay attention.
If we pay attention….become more ‘political’ in the active sense of that word….we’re going to learn a lot in the next few months. Already, we’ve overheard loud declamatory monologues from the libertarian unbound society. Now that Danielle is in the premier’s chair, a local business woman has taken the liberty to share her views on vaccination….and total freedom of speech, loudly enough that we could follow it from the pavement. The Take Back Alberta crowd will be busy flexing their muscles and planning more take over of public institutions….
My partner reported this morning that fundamentalist Christians have some ideas also, about turning the clock back and making Canada into a ‘Christian nation” again……whatever that means.
What our family is going to make of this election is that its a wake up moment….we need to remember what a prominant Canadian writer put in the introduction to his novel “The Wars”.
PAY ATTENTION! PEOPLE CAN ONLY BE FOUND IN WHAT THEY DO. Timothy Findley: The Wars.
Let’s pay attention in the following months, and ask ourselves and our friends and neighbours whether its enough, any longer, to stay silent….or occupied with our private concerns, doing good works and behaving as civilized citizens.
Perhaps we need to interrupt the monologues….object to the name calling vocally…model another set of values…..and confront the incipient fascism that may well have been a silent partner in our Alberta Advantage………since the beginning of our resource fueled ‘good luck’. A lot of good women worked very hard to take a goodly number of seats in Calgary….I can imagine the feedback they are going to enjoy from this crowd of winners….and how exactly are we going to support them, and make harassment of your opponents a no go zone???
The parties almost over. And it just might be breaking bad…let’s stay awake and active, and call out everything that insists we go back to sleep walking into a disaster.
Ingamarie: this is excellent advice. You point out how quickly the anti-vaxxers, the Christian fundamentalists, the TBA, and (I’m sure) the racists, Islamophobes, homophobes, etc have jumped on the “unbound libertarian” bandwagon to proclaim their views and insist the rest of us get on board.
It’s shocking really when you realize that in 2012 Smith’s Wildrose Party lost the election when Smith refused to censure the “lake of fire” pastor and a racist. And yet here we are a mere 11 years later and a majority of Albertans elected a party stuffed to the gills with these people.
So yes, you’re right to point out that we need to stay awake, be active and call out everything that threatens to shove us back into the Stone Age.
Thank you.
Active citizenship can be a lot of fun as well…..we can disagree with good humour, and stand tall without anger. Bullies aren’t generally very brave people….its the fear in the other they count on.
And certainly, they aren’t in the majority. We need to help them see that….before our public education and health care end up on the chopping block of conservative wealth creation.
Whatever we can do to democratically wrest control out of the hands of Danielle, et. al. is worth pursuing. We have climate catastrophe bearing down on us and we’ve elected a gang of deniers that want to shovel money to the fossil companies. We don’t have much time left to set things straight.
Reynold: I’m with you 100%. I’ve just started reading Fire Weather: The Making of a Beast by John Vaillant. He does an excellent job of explaining how resource intensive (read: wasteful) the oil sands are and how destructive they and all fossil fuels are to our continued existence on this planet. He points out that fires like the Fort Mac fire are no longer “unprecedented” but rather exactly what you’d expect after you’ve turned the planet into a volcano.
As you said, we don’t have much time.
I don’t know how many levers we have at our disposal, but the one that immediately springs to mind is loud, wide spread protest to prevent Smith’s government from giving our tax dollars to the industry.
After my wife heard John Vaillant on the CBC we bought the book also. I’m looking forward to reading it.
One of the remarkably stupid things Danielle and the UCP have done recently is object to the idea of a ‘just transition’. Today we have news of progress being made by Iron and Earth on said just transition. Iron and Earth is a good example of citizens taking action (with some help from the feds) without waiting for our hopelessly fossil bound provincial government to act.
The good news is at https://www.theenergymix.com/2023/06/07/breaking-iron-earth-lands-16m-to-help-fossil-fuel-workers-enter-net-zero-jobs/?utm_source=The+Energy+Mix&utm_campaign=1deb7e2ada-TEM_RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_dc146fb5ca-1deb7e2ada-443326617
Susan: Here is my final song pick. This is from 1965. It is a Rod Argent composition, from The Zombies, Tell Her No. It is a great British band.
Dwayne, great pick. I wish we’d told her “NO”.
Thanks!
It will be interesting to see how long Danielle lasts as UCP leader. Presumably her own party will eventually tire of her miscommunications, mistakes, misunderstandings etc. As for the Calgary arena, last I heard the UCP wasn’t actually funding the arena but rather the infrastructure required to support building it. Plus that funding was contingent on the UCP being re-elected AND if the party committee who decides what get spent where agreed to fund it. Given that the main UCP support is based on rural ridings have to say I’m somewhat skeptical that said rural ridings are going to feel the funding love for an arena mainly being used by urban city slickers. As I recall the possible funding figure was roughly $300 million – that is one whopping sum that could fund quite a few of the rural riding asks. Like doctors & access to health care close to home. Just saying.
Also, now the dust of the election is over – almost, still have to wait for the ‘official’ results to be posted – does anyone have an update on whether that not quite $14 billion deficit pay down announced last August has actually occurred? Last I looked (in February 2023) that payment still showed as ‘pending’ which mean it had not actually yet occurred. Too bad the NDP didn’t think to bring that up during the campaign.
Linda, I suspect Smith and her supporters are going to go with the argument that “a win is a win” so she’s got the mandate to lead the party for the next 4 years, but I think that’s naive.
I was listening to a podcast with Peter Tertzakian in which he said a “comfortable win” would have been one where the UCP won 50 seats or more. They came up short. Also it was a polarizing win with the bulk of the support coming from rural Alberta, none from Edmonton and less than half from Calgary.
Furthermore, the NDP are forming the biggest opposition ever so their ability to hold the UCP to account is even stronger.
Bottom line: there are more interesting times ahead!
One thing that really distressed me since the last Election is every email from the NDP had their had out wanting a donation.
I never received one email to tell me what the NDP was doing or planning to do it was always about wanting me to donate money.
Dave, excellent point. I know a lot of policies had been posted on the NDP website but we all know there’s a lower likelihood that people will seek out information than if you just plop it into their mailboxes. A simple message, 4 bullet points perhaps, with links to further information, would have helped.
For the NDP to make real and lasting penetration into the hearts in the ALberta people they have to go back to the roots as defined by Ed Broadbent who represented Oshawa/Whitby Ontario. Ed personally walking his riding.
For instance he knelt down and assisted me weed my garden. Ed handed shingles to a neighbour of mine as he was roofing his house.
Talking with and caring for people rather than TO people.
Use the personal one on one approach as opposed the the corporate approach used by the UCP.
Engage people not their pocket book.
As Kennedy said, “Ask Not What Your Country Can Do For You, Ask What You Can Do For Your Country!”
Dave and Carlos: good points. Although in the run up to the election I started getting texts telling me about townhalls or web based sessions which were intended to get feedback on various NDP policies. I don’t think the NDP did that sort of thing during the campaign itself, likely because it had settled on its policy platform by then.
I wholeheartedly agree that we need to find a better way for the party and our MLAs to communicate with us so we can get behind the party’s policy positions. I understand that the party’s annual policy meeting is supposed to serve this purpose, but the only way to get an item on the agenda is to ensure your local constituency association puts it on the agenda.
Susan as you know very well we are in a new era and not an easy one.
The neo-liberal myth of permanent growth is outdated. The invisible hand, the trickle down and whatever else is obviously bankrupt except for the Jeff Bezos of the world. We need to change if we want to survive this culmination of bad news and mental and physical bankruptcy.
The NDP like most other parties have nothing to offer other than the constant bashing of their opponents. Just take a closer look at this system and try to find hope – How? The basic truth about it is to oppose. I mean is everyone not tired of Pierre Poilievre almost Stalin’s like tirades of NOTHING. Are we not tired of raise taxes or lower taxes? Are we not tired of corruption?
The system may have built an Empire in the 1700 and 1800s but we are in 2023. We are now reaching the limits of pollution, degradation and the standards of living around the world are falling.
If the NDP really wants to move into the future the party has to realize basic reality. One general meeting a year to discuss policy is a joke and we all know how that works, we only discuss what the top brass decides it is important to them, which is winning elections. Once in power find a way to stay in power even if that means cheating rather than creating anything for the citizens.
The NDP was 4 years in opposition of one of the greatest political circus in Alberta History and they still lost the election. They had nothing to offer other than the same in the last election which was to just increase corporate taxes a bit. Nothing wrong with it but seriously?
What about building a real green plan for Alberta – what about getting the best experienced people in the province on Wind Energy, Geo thermal, solar and having public discussions about it? What about talk about the take over of farms by corporations? What about developing new ways of dealing with our forests? what about cleaning up our rivers and stopping direct pollution? what about trying to see how we can deliver health care without the old silly private versus public? how about what government really is rather than continuing this enslaving to corporate power? what about new forms of democratic processes and fairer voting system? what about decent and solid support of our universities and education system and get political interference out of it? What about looking at people as citizens rather than clients? So many issues we can do much better.
Is it easy? Of course not. Is it worth it? Well it is as important as our survival.
Instead of doing more of the same and expect different results we have to create imagination and allow people to feel hopeful and feel they can contribute.
I ask the question – How many people in Alberta actually understand what is Social Democracy? Has the NDP even tried to educate Albertans on what they actually believe in? I never heard anything other than that my MLA is some person named Shepperd. I have no idea who he is other than a once a year talk on some bashing against something the UCP screwed up. Not very hard because they do it everyday.
What about some public meetings about voting systems? Social Democracy? representative versus direct democracy? basic income? resource exploration and who has a say in it? there is no end to use Albertans as much as it is humanly possible. But here we are pushing the same policies that created what we are now and with nothing but accept we are fast approaching a stern reality – hopelessness.
Try to find one hopeful person? What else do you need to understand that we need to do much better. The NDP and all other parties better shape up. We need much more than bashing the opposition, in fact wee need to stop it immediately and start cooperating on how we are going to move forward. If the political system cannot do it because of their incompetence then move aside.
We have highly educated and creative people in this province. We can do better than this Game of Thrones.
A hint to the NDP – organize a major conference on Social Democracy and the value of a real public interest, instead of hiding in whatever brings votes. The way we will win it is when we have the public behind us not when they are concerned we are communists. Oil companies have their place in our society but they should not own our resources or our political aspirations.
I am so glad you mentioned that Dave because I fully agree.
This actually feels a bit disrespectful to me.
My communication with the party is getting these donate requests and lately they are even sending little bites of information and then right after, the real reason for the email – Donate.
The NDP has to review their experience as a party. Right now it is raising money and prepare for elections. Other than that the party does not really have great hubs into the public.
I have a very different take on the election. The NDP wiped the UCP off the map in Edmonton, and — assuming recounts don’t flip some seats back — took over half the seats in Calgary. It was only the UCP’s dominance in the smaller cities and rural Alberta — what Jason Markusoff calls “Otherland” — that gave the UCP their majority.
Dave Cournoyer — aka ‘Daveberta’ — posted an analysis on his Substack of the 12 closest races, and of the 10 seats where the UCP or NDP were strongest. The 10 most lopsided UCP victories were in Otherland, two of them in the Peace Country: Central Peace-Notley (Todd Loewen), and Grande Prairie-Wapiti (Ron Wiebe) — by the way, GP-Wapiti is my constituency. But if the NDP were to find a way to make itself more attractive in the small cities, and flip a couple more Calgary seats, we could see quite a different outcome next time around.
Finally there will be another redistribution before the next election, and Calgary might get more seats due to population growth.
https://daveberta.substack.com/p/top-12-closest-races-of-albertas
Jerrymacgp: thank you for your comment and the piece by Daveberta.
You make a really interesting point with respect to the redistribution of ridings.
The last redistribution under the NDP was (in my opinion) fair and objective. Some of the rural MLAs, including an NDP rural MLA, objected to the new boundaries, justifying their argument for fewer than the average (around 49,000) number of people in their ridings on the basis that the size of the ridings was so vast that it was hard for them to serve their constituents. That was before covid, and we now know that zoom is an effective way of communicating with constituents.
In any event while the rural MLAs may win the argument to keep all of their rural ridings I don’t know how they’ll argue against adding a few more urban ridings to accommodate the population growth in the cities.
Here’s the 2016-17 commission report. Another review could happen as early as 2024. https://www.elections.ab.ca/uploads/abebc_2017_rpt_final.pdf
https://www.elections.ab.ca/resources/reports/electoral-boundaries-commission/
Susan, excellent point about how Covid taught us how to communicate more effectively via Zoom & other such platforms. I’d add that argument regarding the difficulty of serving constituents due to territory size is pretty feeble. Our riding flipped to NDP this election & part of the reason it flipped was as per carefully applied to election signs graffiti was ‘Poor MLA’. In other words, the incumbent had basically gone MIA for nearly a year prior to the election; it was only in the 3 months leading up to said election that MLA suddenly began to attempt to engage their constituents via town halls etc. For much of the year prior to that, crickets. For the record, Calgary-Glenmore is the riding & was previously considered an unassailable bastion of PC seating might. The votes were so close they necessitated a recount which confirmed the NDP win – the first count was a difference of a mere 30 votes, I believe that the recount found another 25 or so votes for the NDP over the UCP candidate.
Thank you, Susan, for reminding us to turn our eyes on the post-election events! I was stunned to read of Suncor’s decision to cut 1,500 employees by the end of the year. And totally disheartened to learn from you that $ 1.81 B profit this quarter wasn’t enough
“because it was a 34% decrease over last year”! If last year was an exceptional time, perhaps because of boycotts and wars elsewhere in the world, is it then A-OK for petro corporations to expect each and every year thereafter to be the same and better? Where is the discussion re Excess Profit Taxes as successfully implemented in other jurisdictions?
Above all, when is enough enough? That is a question that needs to be asked – and answered – for other key aspects of our society. In healthcare, for example: as the UCP government is funnelling more and more taxpayers’ money to for-profit healthcare clinics and corporations, when will enough profit be enough?
Good question Verna. When is enough enough? As far as I can tell the minimum standard for “enough” goes up and up year over year because shareholders and CEOs are of the view that there’s always more out there. It’s almost as if once they’ve hit an exceptional target, it becomes the norm.
You mentioned the Suncor layoffs. I suspect this is just the beginning. TCEnergy just announced it will be laying off employees soon. No details yet as to how many or when but once these layoff cycles start everyone seems to jump on board.
As I said in the post, giving these corporations an 8% tax rate did nothing to protect Albertans’ jobs…but it drastically reduced and important revenue stream which, in turn, will strain our public services.
Nice job UCP.
Adriana LaGrange moves from minister of education to minister of health, with Smith calling her “one of our most competent ministers.”
“She’s done a tremendous job in education. We have an enormous task ahead of us in health care.”
According to our dignified Premier, LaGrange is one of the most competent ministers – imagine that. It just clearly defines the premier’s standards.
What a scary picture this is.
Carlos, I was stunned by Smith’s decision to appoint Adriana LaGrange as health minister. Her sole qualification as far as I can tell is her ability to do exactly what her leader tells her to do. Given her leader’s strong support for “choice” and privatization, it’s pretty clear where we’re going over the next four years, I shudder to think of how many doctors will say enough is enough and pack up or retire.
The whole thing brings to mind the UCP’s privatization of the health labs. Smith says she’s heard it’s taking up to 3 weeks or more to get blood tests done. She’s asked AHS to come up with some alternatives. AHS is ultimately responsible to Adriana LaGrange. Isn’t that reassuring.
As expected nothing was said about climate change or a greener future. The UCP does not believe in climate change, they believe in clean oil.
Another 4 years we do nothing about climate change. What is that? Some left wing conspiracy theory of course. Oh Joy.
Well so much for complaining on social programs.
https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2023/05/03/governments-in-canada-spent-more-than-350-billion-on-corporate-welfare/
Carlos, that article blew me away! Produced by the Fraser Institute no less. I note it said the $350B in corporate welfare excludes other forms of government support like loan guarantees, direct investment and regulatory privileges. It also said there was no evidence that corporate welfare was good for GDP or created more jobs. Conservatives usually like the Fraser Institute, but I suspect they’ll ignore this article because they don’t want to upset their corporate donors.
These words from Suncor CEO Rich Kruger tell the truth:
He also talked up the importance of “organizational efficiency” and suggested that there are ways to trim the company and reduce costs.
“I think we can eliminate work. I think we can do away with work that doesn’t add value,” he said, adding that all employees need to consider how their role helps to generate revenue for Suncor.
“I very much believe in making money. We are in the business to make money and as much of it as possible, and everybody starting with me needs to see how they do that,” Kruger said.
https://globalnews.ca/news/9685041/new-ceo-suncor-cut-costs/
Let me interpret. Workers are nothing more than “human capital”. The sooner human capital can be pushed out, the better. Workplace deaths, safety incidents and production challenges lead to lagging share prices. Investment management companies call the shots. It’s all about efficiencies, which means eliminating workers. People are not people, they’re just the work they do. Work doesn’t add value. Humans have been dehumanized. Money is God. If you’re an O&G worker, get ready for a cull. All companies will have to fall in line in order to be competitive. Capitalists play to win. If you’re not a CEO, you’re a checker on a checker board. Go ahead and put an “I❤️O&G” cult sticker on your truck bumper. It doesn’t love you back. This is how world markets work. Heartless.
That retraining you didn’t want? Enjoy your new part-time job in fast food. Bear in mind there’s high unemployment among young people right now, so they’ll probably outrage you for those jobs. World markets and your employer did this to you. Time is running out on this industry and they’ll do anything to maximize profits while they still can. Blame them when you realize your old way of life isn’t coming back. It’s finished and retraining is your best crack at a full-time, non-marginal job. Take it or don’t. Then live with your choice. This is reality.
*Outrace.
M: well said.
I’ve worked with six CEOs over my time and every last one of them would agree with Kruger. One went so far as to tell me that his contribution to corporate social responsibility (the precursor to ESG) was nothing more than to make money for the shareholders, because if the company made money, the shareholders made money and they’d spend it buying things which would keep the economy going which was good for everyone else. Burning up the planet in the process wasn’t part of the equation.
All these O&G workers are so enamoured with the toys they can buy that they don’t stop to think about what will happen when the Krugers of the world decide they can be sacrificed on the altar of greater profits.