I swore I was going to put politics aside in the run up to Christmas, but when the latest screed from Free Alberta Strategy dropped into my inbox, I had to respond.
You’ll recall that the Smith government is trying to implement as much of the Free Alberta Strategy as possible. One of the pillars of this strategy is to take Alberta out of CPP.
The Smith government commissioned LifeWorks to calculate how much of the CPP assets Alberta would receive if it exited CPP.
LifeWorks determined that Alberta’s share was $334 billion or 53%.
U of C economist, Trevor Tombe, reviewed LifeWorks’ report and concluded Alberta’s share would range from a low of 16% ($100B) to a high of 25% ($150B) and his preferred estimate was 20%.
The matter was referred to Canada’s Chief Actuary who rejected Alberta’s 53% number, setting out a position that “is consistent with the findings of the IAP and the method presented in Dr. Tombe’s paper.”
In other words, the most Alberta could expect is 25%. (Well done, Trevor!).
The Smith government is miffed with the Chief Actuary’s report because “it did not contain a number or even a formula for calculating a number.”
Tombe points out the dollar amount would depend on the year of withdrawal, but “we should have in mind not 334 billion, but something like 120-150 billion.”*
Also the Chief Actuary’s analysis is clear and supports the calculation of 20 to 25%.
The issue here isn’t that the Chief Actuary didn’t provide a number, it’s that the Chief Actuary rejected Smith’s assertion that Alberta would get 53% of the assets if it exited CPP.
So now the ball is back in Smith’s court. What’s she going to do about it?
I’m betting she does nothing.
Why?
Because based on federal polling numbers it’s highly likely that Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives will boot Trudeau’s Liberals out of Ottawa.
Poilievre is on record saying he does not support “anyone” (this means you Alberta) pulling out of CPP. His exact words were: “We will not stand by as anyone seeks to weaken pensions and reduce the retirement income of Canadians.”
In other words, Alberta is going nowhere. And Smith knows it.
Furthermore, if Poilievre will not stand for Alberta exiting CPP, how do you think he’ll react if Alberta (the “economic engine of Canada”) tries to pull out of Confederation?
Do the math.
*See Trevor Tombe’s twitter account @trevortombe for more details.
Susan on the Soapbox 
Thanks Susan, for this post!! the Alberta situation just keeps on getting more ridiculous and the influence of the USA more penetrating. It is beyond any sort of reason! The gamesmanship in politics is becoming terrifying … an existential crisis for our society as we have come to know it! The latest ‘et tu Brut’ was a deal-breaker for me. I am a confirmed political agnostic without the energy or trust to hold any level of understanding of where to go and what to expect!! Poor Singh is in a terrible quandary! I am writing here mainly to encourage your continuing contribution to the context and understanding of what’s going on!
Wishing you and your family a wonderful Christmas and, for all of us, a 2025 that brings sane and welcome surprises!! As always, with love Jane 💕
Janewestman: thanks for your kind comments. I know exactly what you mean about the state of politics here and around the world. It’s demoralizing to see what politicians I used to respect have become. They’re elected to deliver the things they’ve promised. Instead they forget about us and do what’s best (in their opinion) for themselves. Power, power, and more power appears to be the name of the game.
Anyway, this is the time for a break, to recharge and focus on the people who matter the most to us.
Have a peaceful Christmas Jane and we’ll see you back here in the new year.
With affection,
Susan
https://bsky.app/profile/trevortombe.bsky.social
treadmillfix: thank you for the link to Trevor Tombe. I’m on X but am seriously thinking of going to Bluesky.
I hope you are correct. PP would abscond with our CPP in his way IMO. The Conservative Parties across Canada are prepared to destroy our democracy just like the “Musk Presidency”. All I see them doing is rape and pillage the land and the citizens. We see this in Alberta today.
arlenehoberton: fair point re: PP. Like I said, I don’t believe he will support Smith pulling Alberta out of CPP, but that doesn’t rule out the possibility that he won’t try to influence how our CPP funds are invested . This isn’t a new idea. The Liberals mused about using CPP funds to benefit the Canadian economy. Seems to me no government Liberal or Conservative should allowed to mess with our CPP.
Absolutely. It is bad enough what they are already messing up.
It is pretty clear that our system needs to be revised and big time.
How can a prime minister in a democracy just hang on to power just because?
where are the changes promised in the glorious days of we are back and sunny ways?
Carlos: I recall having a conversation with some Liberal friends when Trudeau was first elected in 2015 . I was disappointed Trudeau had backtracked on his pledge to implement proportional representation., They said it wasn’t a big deal and the public would forget. Well, we haven’t forgotten and I can’t help but think that had Trudeau delivered on that promise he wouldn’t be in this pickle today.
Susan I certainly did not and will not forget.
It was just an election vote grabber and I fell for it but I learned once and for all who Justin Trudeau really is and so after that none of his disasters surprised me. He made his own bed. The current situation was predictable.
His ego is all over everything he did and it is getting a disaster for Canada. He is going to give a majority to the worse Conservative leader I remember so far.
It shames me as an Albertan that our UCP government wastes tax dollars on spurious outfits who reach conclusions that the government wants them to reach…so that at the very least, the illusion can be created that we are being robbed by the CPP……..and at the very best, Danielle can invest our hard earned pensions in keeping the extinction technologies alive and doing well.
You have to be both mathematically and ethically challenged to believe that one little western province deserves over half of the CPP reserves….you have to have been raised on resentment and well fed narcissism to believe that ‘everything is so broken’ in Canada that you can run off with the savings of all Canadians……in order to do what???
Create a little Albertastan where all the profits of people’s hard work goes into propping up an extinction technology that already is more subsidized than it should be.??
Exactly who are the fantasists who vote for these geniuses? Exactly where are the sane majority willing to stop them?
noklebym: this was such a great comment. I especially liked your last two sentences.: Who are these fantasists and where is the sane majority to stop them?
Smith is tap dancing away from her ridiculous $334B number, but that’s not good enough.
The fact she put it out there in the first place shows that (a) her government is so incompetent that no one understood this was a flaky number, if so how can we trust them to manage their $73B budget? Or (b) they knew the number was bogus but put it out there anyway to pump up their supporters (see the lucre we’re going to deliver to you) and attack the feds (see how the big bad Liberals have abused you for decades). That is, as you said immoral and disgusting. .
We need more sober thought from people like you Susan…..and you help us to do it, in our respective social circles, by your posts.
We door knocked for Luanne Metz in the last election………and learned a lot about the citizens of Varsity. They care about their province, and about the environment….but too often, the media short changes them. As if none sense like raiding the CPP is more important than clean water.
We went to the CPP meeting this spring or summer and learned a few things that need repeating. Our CPP is the second best sovereign wealth fund in the world!!! It likely should sell its interests in oil and gas, but other than that………….anyone wanting to depart from it, is financially challenged. I could say retarded…but we’re not supposed to use that term any longer, more’s the pity.
noklebym: I know Luanne Metz and think she’s an amazing MLA. Clear thinking, caring, an outstanding addition to the NDP caucus. She’s working so hard for the party, good on you for helping her in the last election.
And thanks for passing along the information about CPP. You’re right, more Albertans need to get the facts before they dive off the deep end and land on a rock.
I’m often shocked by how much we complain. Just finished an on phone survey about roads, bike lanes, pedestrian sidewalks……and honestly had to say: From my privileged position as a car owner and electric bike user…….our streets, bike lanes and pathways are a joy.
But I could sense that some would be demanding the city ‘do better’…….but spend no money doing it. Way past time we counted our blessings, and stopped feeling victimized.
And yes….Dr. Metz is the very best candidate we’ve supported….and we’ve worked for some great people.
Merry Christmas to you Susan and the Soapbox Family! Seems like the unhinged clown party got a lump of coal but honestly who were they trying to kid…Nate Horner, the esteemed finance minister, admitted before the last budget, that was a work of sleight of hand, that he really didn’t understand how the budget worked.The actuary actually did him a favour in this report, understanding how challenged when it comes to math, by not giving an equation/calculation and just stating the obvious. Hopefully this will be dead in the water. Thanks for putting up the good fight and keeping us a bit saner. Looking forward to hearing from you in the new year.
sjhundert: Thank you for your comment (I’m afraid it showed up 3 times, and I’m afraid if I delete the other two, you’ll disappear).
You make a very interesting point about Nate Horner. If the CFO of a private sector company ever admitted he didn’t understand a vital component of his portfolio he’d be fired on the spot. The conservatives are always saying government should be run like a business. Well, they can start by firing Nate Horner and replacing him with someone who doesn’t think math is hard.
Here, here!
Makes too much sense Susan.
Does not work in a mafia world
Carlos: I think you nailed it. We’re still trying to figure out how to deal with politicians who have no regard for the law, political norms, or ethics. We shouldn’t get into the gutter with them but we have to do better. For example, Canada has to push back on Trump who’s playing us for fools. Ignoring him isn’t working.
Merry Christmas to you Susan and the Soapbox Family! Seems like the unhinged clown party got a lump of coal but honestly who were they trying to kid…Nate Horner, the esteemed finance minister, admitted before the last budget, that was a work of sleight of hand, that he really didn’t understand how the budget worked.The actuary actually did him a favour in this report, understanding how challenged when it comes to math, by not giving an equation/calculation and just stating the obvious. Hopefully this will be dead in the water. Thanks for putting up the good fight and keeping us a bit saner. Looking forward to hearing from you in the new year.
Merry Christmas to you Susan and the Soapbox Family! Seems like the unhinged clown party got a lump of coal but honestly who were they trying to kid…Nate Horner, the esteemed finance minister, admitted before the last budget, that was a work of sleight of hand, that he really didn’t understand how the budget worked.The actuary actually did him a favour in this report, understanding how challenged when it comes to math, by not giving an equation/calculation and just stating the obvious. Hopefully this will be dead in the water. Thanks for putting up the good fight and keeping us a bit saner. Looking forward to hearing from you in the new year.
Happy, healthy holiday greetings to Susan and other soapbox participants. I think The UCP government will continue to try to bring the pension under provincial control as a pillar of the Alberta Free banner with some muster and bluster or other means at their control.
I have done my part, small as it may be. In November 2024, I wrote Richard Manley, Chief Sustainability Officer of Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) when the CPPIB was wrapping up a national tour with a virtual meeting.
I said, keep my pension under federal management and gave background reasons.
Given the following:
a) Directors of CPPIB are appointed by by the federal Finance Minister in consultation with the participating provinces and with the assistance of a nominating committee.
b) The Minister of Employment, Workforce Development and Official Languages is responsible for the administration of the CPP.
c) The Minister of National Revenue is responsible for collecting contributions.The email at the time was copied to:
The Honourable Chrystia Freeland as Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance.
The Honourable Randy Boissonnault, Minister of Employment, Workforce Development and Official Languages
The Honourable Marie-Claude Bibeau, Minister of National Revenue
Susan in Palliser: what an excellent idea! Everyone of us should do the same thing and cc our letters to the Premier, Nate Horner, and Naheed Nenshi.
Have a wonderful holiday and we’ll see you back here in 2025.
I wonder how much Lifeworks charged for a document that they were so embarrassed by that no one would put their name to it.
Public Servant: that’s a great question. Whatever they received in the way of compensation is likely not enough to offset the reputational damage that will ensue from them getting the number so spectacularly wrong.
I dont think it was ever the intention to pull out of the CCP in the first place, she would have needed the majority of provinces to agree etc etc. Also, the feedback she recieved from people living in the province it was a none starter. It would have taken a few years to complete which would have taken us over a election cycle, this is not the hill she wants to die on for. You can all rest assured that the CCP is still there for us. Merry Christmas, hopefully Jagmeet will find his chestnuts under the Christmas Tree, Justin rides out into never never land, and Pierre will be appointed the New King. Donald not much hope there i am sorry to say. I guess he just replaces one clown after the next.
schristi66. If it was a set up, then it was an expensive one.
I still believe Smith et al are serious in their pursuit of the Free Alberta Strategy (including the APP) and they’ll continue to roll out the elements of this strategy to appease their supporters (who are as out to lunch as they are). These elements will get knocked down one by one, but until they’re put to bed once and for all they’ll cost us a lot of money and needless angst.
Now as far as federal politics goes…it appears we’re doomed.
Happy Holidays and thank you for your wonderful Sunday Soapbox Series!
Karen Bain: thank you so much!
May your holidays be happy and peaceful too.
I am N O T a card-carrying Liberal nor a card carrying anything, but, am truly scared that if the Canadians get tired of Justin, then Polly-boy gets in and then there will be two dictators in North America……..that thought is just too disturbing to go into Christmas with. Its a pleasure to know that there is a super intelligent woman running Mexico, but, whether she can make a difference against two elected dictators will haffta be seen. Then there is Danny-girl chirping for the sidelines trying cause havoc, its not a very pleasant Christmas this Toooo bad that she could be a smart as the lady in Mexico who at least has the guts to stand up to THE DONALD. That is remarkable and undoubtedly quite unexpected by THE DONALD. Though, just as likely he will just ignore her. Canada has at least one “Ace Card”, against THE DONALD, we shall have to see who has the guts to do it. That “Ace Caard” is pull all the interconnections of hydro to the Americans. That might get their attention and they might appreciate what the poor dear Ukranians are doing…….shivering in the dark and cold. Admittedly, not overly nice, but, it would be interesting to see what the reaction would be. Just a flip of the wrist on switches, and, punch or two on the computer keyboard, and, it will be 1977 alll over again. The Americans do NOT have enough hydro backup to get the States into lights-n-heat.
Merry Christmas,,,such as it is this year, and, wishing you a great safe Happy New Year [if possible].
Gord – Peterboro
Gord Young: I agree that if Poilievre becomes PM we are in big trouble. On top of all the reasons we’ve identified to date, we now have the fact that Poilievre may be a bully, but he’s intimidated by the bigger bully, Donald Trump. I don’t believe Poilievre has the backbone to stand up to Trump. When Trump says “Jump”, Poilievre’s response will be “How high?”
It’s like watching the bullies in the school yard. There’s one leader (Trump), the rest are henchmen (Poilievre, Smith, Moe, etc) trying to ingratiate themselves with the leader. The only premier who doesn’t fit this model is Doug Ford who surprisingly has threatened (as a last resort) to cut of Ontario hydro going into the US.
Merry Christmas Gord to you and yours. See you in the new year!
Hi:
Hope you-n-family had a splendid Christmas. It may be the last if the Canadians, decide to dump Justin for Polly-boy…jumping form one hot kerttle to another solves little. I have said often, I am N O T a card carrying anything for ANY political party,..but, dumping Justin THE wrong thing, since Polly-boy is espousing THE DONALD’s dictums, and, Danny-Girl is going to The Donald’s swearing in. Lots of swearing and lies…LOL There is one “Ace card” the Canadians have besides leaving New England and the Midwest in the cold-n-dark by pulling the hydro feeds on them…which is 5,000% best way. The other is to shut down the American Embassies and other American operations here, and, charge the Ambassador and staff as “Personna non Grata” that used to exist as a clause in the former “War Measures Act”….not sure if it remains in the newest form or not. If, not them an Act of Parliament would work, I F the politicians were tooooo scared to do it. This was done in WW-2 to Germany under Hitler…..another liar and war crimes guy. Under the same clause, the residences of the embassy staff could be seized and their belongings [Chattels in the clause], seized and auctioned off. That just might get THE DONALD’s attention…….perhaps. If I were Justin, I would do it and not think three times about doing it. There is, after the precedence for it in law by the WW-2 Candian Supreme Court. Wonder if Jagemeet Singh would have the spine power to do that ? There is nothing to fear in doing that, the Brits are still behind us, despite that the commonwealth is largely gone. Enough of this stupid humor, time to get cracking and be serious.
Have a great New year, such as it might be….for you-n-family.
Sincerely.
Gord-Peterboro
Its not what Trump says its what he does that people have to take notice off. Lets be honest Canada has been riding on the US coatails for years, whether its secrurity on our shared border or our commitment to NATO. Trump has called us on it, so now out politicians of all strips are running around like chickens with their heads cut off. We have to make some serious decions in this country about what kind of country we want to live in, its obvious the staus quo is not possible under Trump.
Our choices are either Polivere or Trudeau, Trudeau has cooked his own Goose, Joe public have had a belly full of him and the Liberal Govement, So hello Mr PP.
schristi66: As you said, it’s not what Trump says but what he does. This is the lesson many of the people who voted for him will learn soon enough (for example he was going to reduce food prices and now says it’s hard to bring them down when they go up) Of course it is, what did his supporters think he was going to do, put a cap on grocery prices (nope), subsidize consumers (nope). I wish his supporters would apply some critical thinking to what he’s promised, because life is not going to be rainbows and unicorns once he’s sworn in.
Now as far as what our choices are here in Canada, I’m hopeful that Trudeau will take himself out of the game. It’s really late in the day for him to do that, but regardless of who’s on the Liberal ticket, I won’t be voting for Polivere’s conservatives.
Gord: apparently Danielle Smith has been on Fox explaining that Kevin O’Leary got it wrong and most Canadians have no interest in joining the US. What strikes me as odd is that Trudeau has yet to say something as forceful as Denmark and Panama have. A friend of mind with deep roots in the Liberal party said that one of Trudeau’s biggest problems is his inner circle of political advisors don’t appear to understand what’s going on around them. I think he’s right. I understand that everyone deserves a vacation and Trudeau has a lot on his mind right now, but holy cow, when Trump says Canada should become the 51st state, we can’t just dismiss it as silly talk.
Thanks for the kind wishes for 2025. I hope the new year won’t be as tumultuous as the old year, but frankly I’m not holding my breath.
I think you are putting too much faith in Polivere keeping his word….he is too much a copy of Smith and Trump, he’ll promise whay you want to hear but go ahead and do what he wants in the end.
Good point. What they say before the election seldom applies if they win.
noklebym: Agreed!
Bill Albers: fair point. Poilivre risks losing the support of the other provinces if he allows Alberta to pull out of CPP, but you never know what’s going on in their minds so anything is possible.
It’s worthwhile remembering too that Smith is busy changing the rules in her favor as well…(.transparency? what’s that?, ethics? of course….go oilers co!) as examples, and I’m not a political pundit. Now imagine Polivere doing the same thing..
PS, I’m mad a hell here, I’ve just received a bill on December 23 BTW from Alberta Health Services for a total of $1896.93 for services that have always been covered and the reason given is ” This is an adjustment to a previously assessed claim. The patient is not eligible for Alberta Health Care Insurance Plan and will be billed by Alberta Health and Wellness for this service.”
Bill Alberts: A bill form AHS for services that have always been covered??? Is this what Smith meant when she said silo-ing healthcare would make it more efficient? For whom, pray tell.
Take care. I hope you can sort this out soon.
Ms Soapbox, Happy Holidays to you and your family. Would that politics in this province and this country would calm down a bit, at least for a couple of weeks, but it doesn’t seem to be in the cards.
In Ottawa, I’ve not seen, in any of the news clips coming out, any hints of enough snow on the ground for Mr Trudeau to go for a walk in, but perhaps there will be some before January. Nevertheless, it seems clear now, since Ms Freeland’s bombshell resignation letter, that he’s a political “dead man walking”, and the only questions remaining are, when and how will he be ousted as Prime Minister? Will he resign the leadership of the Liberal Party and call for a leadership election? Will he try to stick it out and see his government fall on a non-confidence motion? Will he choose a preemptive strike and visit Rideau Hall to ask the Governor-General for dissolution and a general election? Or will he exercise the least likely remaining constitutional option: visit the GG and resign his government, and recommend that she summon Poilièvre to attempt to form a government? (Thanks to journalist Chantal Hébert for reminding us of that theoretical possibility).
Here at home, a certain deep-pocketed Edmonton businessman has served legal notice of a claim of defamation — claiming $6 million in damages — against a Calgary paramedic and political podcaster, over stories he apparently did about the businessman’s connections to a number of controversial dealings with the Alberta government — ranging from poor quality face masks imported during the early days of the PPE supply chain crunch at the beginning of the pandemic, to the imported Turkish “Tylenot” in 2023, to the more recent “skybox” controversy about hockey playoff tickets for Alberta politicians and political staffers. This action bears all the hallmarks of a SLAPP lawsuit, the very point of which is to silence a weaker defendant through the threat of costly and time-consuming litigation, regardless of the actual merits of the case. The podcaster has created a Go Fund Me page to raise funds for his potential legal fees. From what I’ve read, Alberta lacks any anti-SLAPP legislation, which in Canada only exists in Ontario and B.C.
jerymacgp thank you for the review of the options open to Trudeau. The situation is dire and the fact Trudeau didn’t address his appalling poll numbers earlier in the year has made things worse.
It doesn’t help that Trump is stirring up trouble. Trudeau should have responded in stronger language to Trump’s cracks about Canada being the 51st state. Also the government has to do a better job of explaining to Canadians that Trump’s assertion that the US is subsidizing Canada to the tune of $100B is nonsense. The president-elect is mischaracterizing a trade deficit, just as he’s mischaracterizing who bears the brunt of tariffs.
Thanks also for the information about the defamation lawsuit. One thing to remember is that the discovery process may turn up information that is not helpful to the plaintiff. I’m not saying that’s the case here, but it’s a risk that parties to any litigation have to bear in mind.
Jerry, Happy holidays to you and yours! See you in the new year.
One more option – prorogation.
I suspect Mr Trudeau will wait until Jan 21st, visit the Governor General, then resign & trigger a leadership race.
After all, there is a reasonably close precedent established by Mr. Harper.
Gerald: this is true.
Similar to Brexit, absolutely stupid idea. Reality check: After she has decimated, gambled away all our pensions on dead-horse oil&gas, what then? Can AB pay $250 billion to rejoin CPP?
Before pay the CPP they have to clean up this province and it will cost more than that. Any guess of who is going to pay?
Carlos: it’s always the taxpayer who pays, isn’t it. Wouldn’t it be nice for a change if the corporations who benefit from government largess actually had to pay to clean up their messes?
Guard: Agreed. Your comment made me wonder why conservative governments seem to think that all they need to do is get their hands on a pot full of money and the public will be forever in their debt. What they fail to factor into the equation is that those pots of money are so large for a reason. They’ve been well managed for years and dumping them into the laps of small minded, petty politicians who want to divert the funds to serve their own political ambitions is a really bad idea. I suspect they think they’re way smarter than they really are.
It’s pathetic.
Like I said many times before, politicians are fully responsible for the rise of the fascists again. Believe it or not, they continue with the same attitude as if nothing is happening. It is terrible and very sad. They are destroying Democracy.
We are in 2025 and I believe many of us still do not realize what we could be facing this year. I like to be ready for appalling events
https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2025/01/03/Trump-Civil-War-News-Media/
What Neo-Liberalism dumped on us
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2024/12/24/news/top-ceos-salaries-average-worker-oil-executives
it is scandalous but with politicians in love with the corporate doners it just keeps getting worse. By 10 AM of the very first day of 2025 they have already made the average salary of slave Canadians.
The average is 13.2 millions only
Of course they deserve it !!!
In the 1960s, the average salary for a CEO of a major U.S. company was about 20 times the salary of the average worker